Clouds and lingering showers can be found in far eastern parts of Ohio to start the day this morning, but generally, we should be seeing mostly sunny skies and a nice batch of drying over the rest of the state. In fact, Dry weather is here for the next 3 and a half days to almost 4 days! We see nothing but sunshine and blue skies today through most of Sunday. Temperatures will be climbing. We expect temperatures to be in the lower 80s today, mid 80s tomorrow and a range of 88-95 for the weekend, with Saturday being the hottest day. A large part of the state will see 90+ temps on Saturday. The map at right shows those high temperatures across Ohio for Saturday. With humidity values trying to increase, the heat index values will be climbing as well.Now, fortunately, growing crops could care less about heat indices. While it will be hot, we need to stress that actual air temps are not going to really be all that excessive. These temps are going to be a good 5-7 degrees above normal for this time of year, but after all, it is summer, and we have been cooler than normal the past several days.
Scattered showers move into NW Ohio Sunday evening, and spread south and east from there through the overnight hours Sunday night and into Monday. Rain totals can be anywhere from .1”-.5” with coverage at 60%. Rains should wind down by Monday afternoon at the latest. We see mixed clouds and sun for both Tuesday and Wednesday (Independence Day) of next week, but we can’t rule out a bit of scattered shower action. Tuesday it looks to mostly be south of I-70, and Wednesday it s just scattered about, with not more than 50% coverage. We do not think this is a big deal, but we can’t bring ourselves to wave the all clear flag. Temperatures for the Monday through Wednesday period will be generally in an 82-88 degree range.
We are dry next Thursday through the following Monday. Temps to finish next week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. This will promote strong drying once again. For the rest of the extended period, we have a few scattered showers with 40% coverage for the 10th, rain totals of no more than .4”, and then we are dry again for Wednesday the 11th through the morning of the 12th. The only strong front in our forecast this morning comes late in the 11-16 day window, crossing from Thursday afternoon the 12th through Friday the 13th (yes…Friday the 13th!). That front has potential for half to 1.5” rains with coverage at 90% of the state. We swing back dry with strong high pressure building in for the 14th forward.
So, a general summary of this forecast runs similar to what we have been hinting at over the past few days. The pattern is getting warmer, yes. But a bigger story will be precipitation shutting off. Initially, that will make many folks happy, as we have see excessive rains over the past couple of weeks. However, soil conditions may change quickly, with maximum evaporation and high temps. This makes us concerned that we may start to hear complaints about moisture and “needing a rain” as soon as mid to late week next week. Time will tell, but if we have gotten used to ample moisture to this point…we likely are going to be in for a rude awakening. We are not calling for instantaneous drought or immediate crop problems…but rain timing will take on much more of a premium in our discussions going forward.