Ohio Weather Outlook from Chief Meteorologist Ryan Martin
A mostly dry week ahead of us. Strong high pressure is working into the western Corn Belt out of the Great Plains. This high brings dominant sunshine to Ohio today, and will keep dry weather top of mind for most of the week. Temperatures today will be near normal, slightly warmer than yesterday, but winds should not be as strong.
A big question mark hovers over tomorrow. We prefer a dry forecast solution and desire to stay with a mostly dry focus in our specific Ohio forecast. However, several computer models are trying to bring minor moisture over the region tomorrow morning into mid-late afternoon, sagging it from north to south. Those models source this moisture from a strong low circulating to the northeast, moving out of Ontario into Quebec. Now, we will admit this is a very strong low, but we think that the amount of moisture wrapping around the backside all the way back here is going to be minor. We should see some clouds to be sure. But, to get precipitation going…that is a bit more difficult in our opinion. However, we did see some moisture yesterday, and that may be just enough to keep an atmospheric profile damp enough to squeeze out a bit of moisture. So, as much as we want to keep the forecast completely dry…we have to allow for a hit and miss shower or two tomorrow. Clouds will be the most dominant feature of the day, but done rule out a spit or sprinkle with no more than 30% coverage.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday all have plenty of sunshine, and a very dry set up. We should see excellent drying potential for forage work, evaporation rates near maximum, and temps will slowly gain a couple of degrees per day. WE will be near normal for Wednesday, but slightly above normal for daytime highs by Friday. High pressure will generally be in control.
A strong frontal complex moves through for the weekend. Saturday we see rain and even a thunderstorm or two develop over northern Ohio, and then the action sags south through Saturday night and Sunday. We will look f or Ohio rain totals for the weekend combined to be from .25”-1.25” with coverage at 90%. The map above is a snapshot from Saturday evening, with rain totals from the previous 6 hours. The rains don’t look “heavy” at any point in time this weekend, but will add up over the course of a 24-36 hour period
Dry behind this system to start next week, Monday and Tuesday. Temps will be near to a bit above normal, with good drying and low relative humidity. Our next front arrives for Wednesday and can bring .25”-1” rains to about 90% of the state. The front moves through quickly, and we should see most action done by sunset Wednesday. Dry for Thursday and Friday to start the 11-16 day forecast window.
A front arrives for next Saturday, the 16th. Rains can be from .1” to .8” with coverage at 60% of the state. Then strong high pressure moves in from the NW, and should keep the start of the week after next on the dry side. There could be another system threatening the region around the 21st into the 22nd.
So, in general, after this drier week, we move into a pattern that can be summed up with the term “timely rains”…so at this point, weather looks pretty good for crop growth and development.