We keep our forecast dry for the next few days, but the weather set up from this weekend into early next week is becoming more and more interesting. Computer models have no idea how to handle the timing and intensity of the next round of precipitation coming our way. Before it gets here, though, we will work through more sunshine and warmer temps for today and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow, on and off clouds can mix in with the sun, as a warm front lifts back into the state. We are leaving precipitation out of our forecast here, keeping it farther north and northwest today and the first part of tomorrow. However, tomorrow late afternoon and evening, we would not be surprised to see some shower action sag down across Lake Erie into north central Ohio, and maybe linger in NE Ohio through midnight. Coverage here will be minor. Temps will begin to warm today, and we will be at our warmest for the week tomorrow and Saturday. Relative humidity values will be climbing over the coming days.
An interesting pattern is emerging for the weekend. We are seeing an influx if warm air and moisture into the state, and it is all going to come to a head at some point. This is playing around with where moisture wants to settle out next week as well. So, we are making some changes to the forecast farther out again this morning, but in general, the overall energy and moisture availability looks the same for the 4-day period from Saturday through Tuesday as we had in our previous forecast. The timing and intensity is just a bit up in the air. Here is how we are tackling it this morning. At this point, Saturday looks mostly dry in the south, but we still may see some scattered moisture closer to Lake Erie through the morning and midday. Action really ramps up Saturday late in the day, and from there through Sunday and the first half of Monday, we see showers and thunderstorms both moving through Ohio. Significant thunderstorms develop in NE Ohio Saturday night, and strong to severe thunderstorms can develop in SW Ohio overnight Sunday night through Monday midday. Sunday, we see scattered showers build in frequency, coverage and intensity. The size and scope of thunderstorm development will be key, because without thunderstorms, we likely see barely half to 1 inch. With thunderstorms, we can easily push that to an inch and a half in some spots to over 2 inches in others. Yesterday the energy structure suggested that thunderstorms were less of a factor…and now today they are back on. So, it’s a very interesting pattern. Thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday would rob moisture from a disturbance initially slated for next Tuesday. Again, the total number of days of rain are similar to our previous forecasts, but we are just tweaking the action around a bit this morning. The map below shows cumulative rain potential through Monday midday.
Dry weather is slated to return behind the rain and storms and will hold for most of the rest of the week next week. We can’t rule out a few hit and miss showers next Thursday night into Friday over the north, but still think we can put together about 5 days of dry weather for the week next week.
In the extended period, we have 2 systems to talk about. A cold front around the 18th brings rains of half to 1 inch, and then a second cold front for the 21st and 22nd has .25”-.1”