We are making changes to the forecast this morning as our pattern is looking wetter. Rains moving into Ohio today are as we expected when we last talked this past Friday, but dryness for the rest of the week is out, and scattered showers are in. This make the forecast one that benefits most crop growth and development, as long as it verifies. However, we are seeing some pretty good model agreement on the pattern for the remainder of this week and the weekend. We do not see models diverge until next week. A map of 10 day rain potential is below at right, and discussion of our forecast changes follows.
Today we have scattered showers across Ohio, and we see additional showers tomorrow. The days look very similar. Each day we can see a few hundredths to .3″ of rain, with coverage combined over the two days at 75%. On Wednesday, we see sunshine break out over the southern half of Ohio, with no precipitation from I-70 southward. Up north, we see scattered showers developing late in the afternoon and evening, but staying north of I-70. Rain totals will be .25″-.75″ with 60% coverage north of I-70.
For Thursday, we have scattered showers sagging south across the state, ending up near I-70 by sunset. These showers will bring a few hundredth to .3″ again to that part of the state with 70% coverage, but we see nothing for Thursday south, and sunshine will mix with clouds there. Friday will be wet statewide, with showers and thunderstorms bringing up to half an inch of rain and 80% coverage.
We are dry for the weekend through midday Monday! Sunshine will dominate, and temps will be pleasant. Showers are back for the Monday night through Tuesday and Wednesday period. These showers do not have excessive moisture on any given day, only about a trace to half an inch possible on either of the days, but combined, we will see some good moisture, and coverage at about 70%. Once again, models have been a bit divergent on solutions for next week, and our forecast is admittedly toward the wetter end of the spectrum. So, if we do see changes evolve over the coming days, we expect our forecast will trend drier, so stay tuned.
For the extended period. We will see the showers expand to statewide coverage for Thursday, the 12th, bringing .25”-.75” to 75% of Indiana. Then we go dry for next Friday, Saturday and Sunday. We finish the 11-16 day forecast period with a nice, slow moving frontal complex sagging across the region for the 16th and 17th, allowing for an additional .25”-.75” of moisture with 90% coverage.
Temperatures will continue on a bit of a roller coaster. Rains overnight and today will pull temps back to near and slightly above normal levels today and tomorrow. We will be hot again Wednesday, Thursday and Friday morning, on strong south flow and some sunshine in the area. Temps will be well above normal. Then the front that sweeps through Friday brings significantly cooler air in for Friday evening through the weekend. Temps for that period will be below normal. Then we spend most of next week near normal. After the heat of this past weekend, this is also a good forecast outlook on temps.