Moisture will be pushing off to the east and south today. This morning we are seeing some lingering action in far eastern Ohio, and then down near the River. While the eastern stuff pushes quickly into PA this morning, closer to the river we can see action hold on through early afternoon. Most of this will be limited to the lower row or two of counties, particularly in south central Ohio. Rain totals through the rest of the day should be minor, ranging from a few hundredths to a few tenths max. The rest of the state will see nothing today, and sunshine should be a dominant player.
Dry weather continues for the weekend, with high pressure parking right on top of eastern Indiana and western Ohio by tomorrow late afternoon. As north winds com around the front side of the high, we should see pleasant temps, and even Sunday, as south winds return, temps are slow to react. We should stay below normal for the weekend for our daytime high temps. The map shows temps relative to normal for tomorrow morning!
Next week brings a return of warm air, and temps climb to above normal levels fairly quickly. However, we are keeping a dry forecast through at least Thursday. We can expect sunshine and fair-weather clouds through most of the period. The warm air may create a bit of instability over southern and particularly SW Ohio for Monday and Tuesday afternoon, and we won’t rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm, but we really think that nothing happens, and we should be dry through the period.
Late next week we are still watching a front for the 13th through the 15th. However, this front appears to have lost some punch in the past 24 to 36 hours, so there may not be as much available moisture with the system. In our favor, though, will be the fact that the focal point of the front may be farther east as well, and put a large part of Ohio in the path of some .25″.5″ rains. We wont even rule out an inch in spots, if thunderstorms can develop (there is some potential at this time). . For now, we will not rule out a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorms, mostly Saturday and nearly Sunday, although we cant rule out some minor action overnight Friday in west central and NW Ohio. We expect coverage at 60-70% at this time but this system still needs to be watched.
In the extended picture, early indications are that we stay more active in the eastern corn belt. We see rain chances nearly every day from the 17th through the 21st, and some models even put a few showers in for the 16th. Daily totals are not that impressive, but the current set up points toward a nice stream of moisture coming up of the Gulf and coming into the region from the south. Meanwhile, strong high pressure sets up a bit father west, and allows for significant drying. That kind of set up gives a perfect recipe for thunderstorm development, and plenty of wiggle room to move moisture west or dryness east. So, let’s not mark anything down in ink just yet, and see what mother nature points at when we talk again on Monday.