Relatively short and sweet this morning. We have plenty of moisture around for crops. Rain and thunderstorms will be over the northern half to two thirds of Ohio today, and over the southern half to two thirds of Ohio tomorrow. Rain totals can be from .25″-1″, and if thunderstorms fire off, there can be some locally higher rains. All of the state likely gets wet at some point between now and Sunday morning.
Rains are back in the forecast Sunday afternoon, and scattered showers will be with us through Monday and Tuesday, ending by Tuesday afternoon. This will give an additional .25″-.75″ over 80% of the state.
After about a 12 hour lull, Rain and thunderstorms return for Wednesday and the precipitation could linger into Thursday. We are leaving our rain totals at .25”-.75” over 90% of the state. But thunderstorms, and strong ones at that, seem to have had an easier time developing recently in our current atmospheric set up. So, we think it will be relatively easy to see some isolated rain totals over an inch. But, we are not going to go way off the deep end, like the European model continues to do. We will revisit this storm complex Monday morning and make any changes in strength, track and timing if any other models begin to side with the Euro. Right now, we think getting a strong, low pressure circulation over the state triggering heavy rains everywhere is less likely than hit and miss strong to moderate action. The map at right shows 10 day rain totals over Ohio.
We will keep scattered showers in for Friday with only 40% coverage. These may bring up to a quarter inch of new precipitation. But, we are going dry for the entire weekend next weekend, the 18th and 19th. We also are dry for the 20th. For the rest of the extended 11-16 day forecast period, we have scattered showers for the 21st through the 24th, a pattern very similar to what we are seeing now.