Change is in the works as we start the week. A front is on the way to Ohio, and the warm air we saw this weekend will be replaced by near normal air. The front does not really arrive, though, until tomorrow, meaning we still should see some sunshine and some above normal temps today. Clouds may build this afternoon, but rain holds off until tomorrow morning. Rains increase in intensity and frequency through tomorrow, starting in NW and northern parts of the state, and then spreading south and east from there. Rains will be at their zenith Tuesday night and Wednesday. We likely see the rains last all the way up to sunset Wednesday night. Thunderstorms are possible, but at this point we do not think there will be anything strong to severe, but we will keep an eye on it. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.5” over 90% of the state for the system combined.
We are dry for Thursday and Friday morning. Sunshine dominates. Temps near normal in the lower to middle 80s.
Our next front arrives Friday, but this will be a slow moving, sagging front working into northern Ohio around Friday midday. In fact, we only see rains north of I-70 in Ohio through Friday, and see nothing I-70, allowing some down there for the entire day. However, moisture works south through the day Saturday and will finally end closer to sunrise Sunday morning. Rain totals are not that impressive and will be mostly from a few hundredths to .6″, and coverage will only be 60% of the state…there will be a lot of holes in the coverage.
After a brief dry spell Sunday during the day, we get our third wave of moisture coming in Sunday night, and then lingering all the way through Monday midnight. This moisture is scattered in nature again but has much better coverage than the Friday-Saturday event. We are putting rain totals at a few hundreds to .7” with coverage at 70% of the state or better. We move back to dry weather to finish the 10-day period next Tuesday and Wednesday. The map at right is a total of rain potential through the entire 10 day period (all three systems).
In the extended 11-16 period, we still see a front for next Friday, the 17th that bring half to 1-inch rain potential. Coverage should be close to 80% of the state. There is some potential for that front to stall out over Indiana and Ohio and bring additional rain every day through the end of the extended period, which would be the 21st. Models are divided on that solution, and we think given the pattern, it will be difficult to see that play out, especially if we see temps stay near normal over the period. So, we are trending our forecast drier than that at the moment, with lingering rain into the 19th and perhaps the 19th, but nothing for the 20th and 21st as of this morning.
Temps look to pull back to near normal starting tomorrow and going through the rest of the week and weekend. This is on average. Normals are in the lower to middle 80s and we think we will be at or slightly above those levels on dry days, and near or a degree or two below those levels on days where we have rain. No major concerns for crop growth and development here going forward through mid-August.