We are dry today over the state. The past few days have been very difficult forecast-wise, due to seemingly plentiful instability, both ahead and behind a frontal boundary working into the eastern corn belt. Today we see a brief moment of stable conditions and a lack of any new moisture being introduced into the state. That should allow us to be dry and sunny in most areas, with temps near normal.
Scattered showers arrive in NW Ohio by tomorrow morning, and then spread south and east through the day. We think action for Friday is mostly north of I-70, although we wont rule out a few incursions father south. Then, as the moisture continues to move for Saturday, we have scattered showers from I-70 south to the Ohio River. Combined rain totals for the event, both days, will be from .1″-.7″ with 80% coverage.
We are mostly dry Sunday morning, but showers return for afternoon and evening. Rain continues through Monday and Tuesday, with totals for the period at .25″-.75″ and coverage at 100%. WE are dry for Wednesday as the moisture moves off south and east.
Rain is back on Thursday with another .25″-.75″ over 90% of Ohio. We are continuing to take a very conservative approach to this system, but will point out once again that the European model still wants to develop a massive storm complex with a strong low, heavy rains and severe weather, particularly in the NW and north central part of the state. At this time, we still do not see any reason to ramp this up that far.
After a bit of a lull, we have to allow scattered showers in for Friday and Saturday with only 40% coverage. These may bring up to a quarter inch of new precipitation, but we also think that if there is a weak link in the forecast, it is here…these could fall apart or just come as some clouds. We are dry for Sunday the 19th into the 20th. The map at right shows potential rain totals over the next 10 days.
For the rest of the extended 11-16 day forecast period, we have scattered showers for the 21st through the 24th, a pattern very similar to what we are seeing now. So, overall, our forecast is wetter this morning, with no excessive moisture, but good chances for a majority of our forecast pattern. Our atmosphere is getting well primed to trigger these kinds of days. Precipitation will be scattered over the period, and there will be many areas that miss out on action day to day. But over the coming two weeks combined, we all get nice moisture, enough to continue promote good crop conditions, growth and development.