No changes in our thought process this morning. Even though it took longer to get clouds out of some parts or even most of the state yesterday, we are starting off this morning with high pressure over east central and southeast Indiana, which should bring brighter skies and drier weather to the entire state of Ohio as that high moves quickly into our state! We continue to see dry weather all the way through the rest of the week and the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise and will be anywhere from 5-10 degrees above normal late this week and weekend. We continue to see Hurricane Florence making landfall somewhere in the Carolinas between Thursday night and Friday. From there it pushes slowly inland, and backs up the flow pattern across the country. This should be seen as a benefit to us here, giving us a chance to dry out. However, we are watching how Florence moves inland very closely, as we are concerned about clouds and even a bit of moisture trying to threaten at least southern Ohio as we move through the last half of the weekend. We’ll talk about that a bit below. In the mean time, humidity values will be low the rest of this week, and we should see excellent evaporation rates.
We are keeping our forecast dry for Sunday-Monday-Tuesday of next week as well. However, we want to throw out something to watch. If Florence comes right inland, slamming the coast and having good velocity, there is a chance that the momentum can throw moisture farther in to the mainland. WE mention this because the European model last night tried to introduce some moisture into Ohio, particularly the southern half of the state, a likely offshoot of Florence, next Sunday night through Tuesday. WE think this is too premature to make such a call and a little bit overdone. We grant that moisture in WV and even eastern KY can throw clouds up into southern Ohio, and we even mentioned that yesterday. But we are not sold on true precipitation making it in here at this time. We think that Florence will slow as she arrives at the coast and may even do a little “loopty-loop” around just off the NC coast, before finally coming ashore. That lessens the west-northwest momentum of the storm and likely makes it difficult to push over the Appalachians. Still, we have to be open to the potential of moisture trying to come all the way back into our neck of the woods. It is something we will watch and revisit again in coming days, but for now we are leaving our dry period intact through early next Wednesday.
Our next front arrives midday to afternoon next Wednesday. It does not look all that impressive but can bring a few hundredths to .3” of moisture to about 70% of the state. This front is gone by midday Thursday, and we return to drier weather through the rest of the week. The map at right shows cumulative rain potential over the next ten days…through next Thursday.
In the extended period, our next front around the 23rd and 24th looks to be delayed by about 12 hours or so and may be more of a 24th alone or even a 24th-25th event. That system also does not look as strong and may bring up to half an inch of rain to about 60% of the state.
Temps remain warm through this extended period, but strong Canadian high pressure is sitting to our northwest all through the period and will only need a nice front to work through to open the door to cooler air. Right now, we are keeping temps above normal through the 23t, but may have to bring them down after that.