We should be able to pick off a mostly dry day over Ohio today. Honestly, today should look very similar to yesterday. Heat is making its presence known and humidity values are creeping up too. We still can’t rule out a couple of pop of showers, but generally there is nothing to see here, today.
Better organized shower and thunderstorm activity moves in for tomorrow . We expect the showers to arrive in western parts of Ohio around mid morning and then spend the rest of the day working through the state. The most frequent showers end by evening, or at least before midnight. But then for Friday, we expect some additional scattered action. The Friday precipitation, though, will be skewed in its coverage farther south, mostly over the southern half to one third of the state. Overall, we can expect .2”-.7” of rain with 70% coverage combined over the 2-day period. This is part of a frontal complex that will be moving in from the west and north.
The main feature of our forecast this morning is the remains of tropical system Gordon. Gordon will be making landfall later this week in MS and LA and will then work north through the lower and mid-Mississippi valley, before hooking northeast. Gordon will start to push into SW Indiana Saturday. However, we do not think that we see anything from this storm complex through the day Saturday in Ohio. Here, we have rains for Sunday and Monday being most intense. Those days can bring at least 1-3″ to 100% of the state, and we think that there will be some 4 inch totals. If we are being completely honest this morning, we have a concern in the back of our minds that that rain totals can actually exceed the 4” upper bound (see the map below), but we will be conservative for now, as the overall rain totals will be completely dependent on the track that Gordon’s remains take.
Leftover showers hold through the day Tuesday and can add .1″-.5″ to our cumulative rain totals. Once again, we see the better chances at those Tuesday rains in the southern and eastern parts of the state, and not as much NW, but we don’t want to get too cute, with backside moisture still trying to rotate over the far eastern corn belt. Wednesday also looks damp with a few more scattered showers bringing a few hundredths to .4″ to 60% of the state. This should bring to an end the wettest part of our entire forecast. The map at right shows cumulative rain potential now through next Wednesday.
After all of that, we do eventually get a nice dry period starting next Thursday, stretching through the end of the 10-day period on Friday. We also will start off the 11-16 day extended period with more dry weather for the weekend through the following Monday. Our next chance of rain looks to develop around the 18th and 19th (Tuesday and Wednesday) with rain totals of half to 1.5” coming from slow moving rains moving across the state. We expect 90% coverage from that system. Then we go back to dry weather for the 20th on forward through at least the 23rd.
Temperatures will be warm again today, as we have already hinted at above. Yesterday was a “to 10” day when compared to all previous September 4th’s on record, as most of the state was near or above 90 degrees. Heat indexes were higher. Today and tomorrow will be well above normal again, but then, as rains intensify Friday through the weekend and early next week, we see temps pull back to normal and below normal levels. However, the cooler push will be tough to notice, as humidity levels will be high, it will be stuffy and therefore feel much warmer. Then, the balance of our forecast sees temps go back above normal for the rest of the 10-day period and the extended window as well. We will need the warmer temps to help with dry down after all of the rain over the next 6 days.