Cooler air is here and will dominate the upcoming forecast period. We will see temperatures average 4-12 degrees below normal through the upcoming 16-day period except for 3 days…next Friday and Saturday the 19th and 20th, and then Friday the 26th. While the air is cooler, we expect a large part of the coming forecast period to be dry, which should facilitate a return to good harvest progress.
Today we see sunshine dominate through at least the early to mid-afternoon hours, and then we start to see clouds build. A minor batch of moisture is set to move over the state from later tonight through tomorrow morning, and we are thinking a set of bookends from 10PM through 9AM. We expect coverage to be 70% of the state.
The rest of the weekend is dry with sunshine dominating statewide on Saturday. We may see evidence of some patchy frost Saturday morning, mostly in northern and western parts of the state. Sunday brings more sun in the north, but clouds will be building in southern Ohio later in the afternoon and evening. We should see low relative humidity values and good drying.
Rains start to develop after midnight Sunday night through sunrise Monday. The heaviest rains on Monday happen in the midday and afternoon hours. Also, the bulk of these rains affect southern areas more than north. South of I-70 we expect .25”-1” rains with 85% coverage. North of I-70 though, we see mostly clouds and rain totals of a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. The map shows a snapshot of action Monday midday. Another colder batch of air moves in behind the Monday system.
A hard frost is likely over parts of the state Tuesday morning, but, Tuesday brings plenty of sunshine and kicks off a dry period that runs all the way through the following Thursday. The bulk of this 10-day window from this Tuesday to next Thursday will be dry, allowing for good evaporation rates (even in the cool air) and a wide-open harvest window.
A well-organized front moves in for late in the extended forecast period. We look for .25”-.75” over 80% of the state for the 26th into the 27th.