We continue with a wet pattern over most of the state this week. In fact, we are making changes to the forecast for late week, to add some precipitation. We do have a drier window rolling in for next week. The map below shows rain totals for this week, through Sunday. Here is the breakdown this morning.
Rain is moving away this morning to the east, the consequence of a warm front that lifted into the state late yesterday. However, we are still looking at some action over eastern parts of the state through midday. Additional moisture should be limited to a few hundredths to a tenth or two. Western areas should be done this morning. We should end up with about a 12 hour dry stretch at some point behind this exiting moisture before our next frontal boundary rolls in. Strong south winds will continue to keep temps above normal today into tomorrow, until the cold front passes. We expect rain to move into western and NW Ohio shortly after midnight, and then continue through the day tomorrow. We are keeping rain totals at half to 1.5” over 100% of the state. However, the heaviest rains will be in the southern half of the state. All rain should be done by before sunrise Wednesday morning. Temps turn cooler behind the front.
We are dry for Wednesday and Thursday and should see good sub-freezing temps in both mornings. Temps will be near to below normal both days as well.
A change in the forecast this morning comes for Friday. We have another wave of moisture working up from the southwest that can trigger rains from .25”-.6” over 90% of the state starting Friday early morning and lingering through the balance of the day. This rain will be gentle, but definitely puts thoughts of harvest on the back burner again.
Dry for Saturday and most of Sunday. We do see moisture spreading over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario Sunday and may have to watch for offshoot cloud cover into the northern third to half of the state for Sunday midday and afternoon. As we have said before, it does not take nearly as much moisture to trigger a bit of rain at this time of year, so those clouds make us a little nervous from US 30 northward Sunday afternoon and evening, but we are going to keep the forecast dry at this time. We will take another look tomorrow.
The rest of the 10-day window, from Monday through Wednesday, looks dry. The extended 11-16 day period starts the same way, dry. However, we have a significant rain event coming for the 16th through the 18th, and then another system looking to push up from the south for the 20th and 21st. Both of those systems look to have significant rain potential that can be from half to 1.25” at least. The system for the 16th-18th has 100% coverage, while we put coverage right now on the system for the 20th at 70%. Temps through the extended period warm back up to above normal levels, slightly, meaning we still see no major long-term cold snap in our forecasts just yet.