Market Analysis

soybean

The difference between a speculator and a farmer

The South American harvest is expected to be a record with few shipping problems. Expect the market to be range-bound until March 31, when U.S. planted acre estimates are published.   Market action With few South American harvest concerns, I moved some of my bean hedges, which were originally placed anticipating a South American production [...]

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Capitalizing on wish orders

The Thursday USDA report, as expected, held few surprises. The bean yields in South America continue to grow and could weigh on prices down the road. News of bird flu outbreaks concerned traders this week. It’s still uncertain how widespread the disease will be, so the market is a little shaky. A widespread outbreak would [...]

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Capitalizing on a sideways market

Rumors of changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandate last week shook up the markets Many question if the rumor is valid, because changing the mandate would require an act of Congress, which is not a guarantee or fast process. Regardless, this rumor is viewed as “uncertainty” to the market. With corn around $3.75, [...]

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Heitkamp Farms Feeding Farmers Corn Harvest Combine

Capitalizing on the basis

There is a lot of unsold corn in farmers hands. Some estimates indicate only 40% to 45% of the 2016 crop is sold. With 16% carryout, there is plenty of supply available for the remaining seven marketing months. End users aren’t desperate for corn. Despite the abundant corn supply I think corn futures have upside [...]

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Something is not adding up with carryout and prices

This week last year versus this year: Corn futures: 2017 — $3.70 2016 — $3.65 Carryout 2017 — 2.3 billion bushels 2016 — 1.7 billion bushels Something doesn’t add up. Basis has continued to slide lower and lower. Values are about 20 cents less than last year at this time, possibly adjusting to the irrational [...]

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Focusing on 2017 instead of 2016

The USDA report published on Thursday held few surprises. Basically we have too much corn and wheat, and most likely too many beans. Expect more sideways trading in the short-term. South America Update South American weather has been “normal.” Many expect record yields in Brazil and trend-line yields in Argentina. Combined yields may exceed early [...]

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Developing a strong marketing strategy

Iowa State University just reported their 2017 corn and bean breakeven points. It showed that the average Iowa bean farmer can lock in 2017 crop profits with current fall market prices. That is not necessarily the case for corn. Corn on corn farmers would likely lose with today’s prices, while corn on beans are showing [...]

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Will tight-fisted corn sales continue?

Corn prices continue to dominate the thoughts of producers this winter. They have plenty of 2016 corn yet to sell as shown by the quarterly grain stocks report from last month. This report had Dec. 1, 2016 U.S. corn stocks at 12.6 billion bushels, up 10% from December 2015, a new Dec. 1 record. Corn has [...]

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Market action for sideways prices

Soybean market commentary Argentina weather remains good, which could mean an increase in bean yield estimates.  If this continues, global supply will be high and likely push down prices. The key will be plenty of rain through the growing season, and then dry weather during harvest. Expect volatility for the next few months, as many [...]

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More on options: Making the right call with calls

Results from a recent Farm Futures survey show farmers will plant roughly the same number of corn and bean acres — around 90.5 million acres. If true, this would be long term bearish for beans and long term relatively bullish for corn.   Estimating South America’s soybeans At the start of the growing season the [...]

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