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Market Analysis



Selling corn before harvest

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC   The USDA increased the export demand pace for corn. Should the U.S. produce a trend line corn yield of 174 bushels per acre this year, then carryout would drop from the current level of 2.1 billion to just below 1.6 billion by …

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Bullish, bearish or both?

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC There are several reasons why someone could be bullish or bearish today. Understanding marketplace variables that could affect prices can be helpful when developing a grain marketing strategies. Following are some recent variables that could potentially impact the market.   Reasons to be …

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Thoughts about market analyses

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Generally I think grain marketing information directed to farmers is often too broad and general to be helpful. I suspect that’s because those discussing the markets don’t want to commit too far in one direction for fear of being wrong. That is understandable and …

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Hedge account confusion

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients The first look at the ’18/’19 USDA supply and demand estimates are out. Corn yields are predicted to be 174. If this happens, U.S. carryout would be reduced from the current 2.1 billion to 1.6 billion next year, a 20% decrease. World carryout predictions …

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Thinking of the farm as a business

Corn and bean basis has remained strong, or even slightly improved for April delivery, even with the recent futures rally. This likely indicates limited farmer selling and/or good demand. It’s been a while since we’ve seen this type of market situation, and it suggests potentially higher prices going forward. I …

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Are options the answer?

The market is unsure if bean tariffs will mean anything. Even if China starts buying all of their beans from South America, the rest of the world could still buy U.S. beans. This week the Brazil bean cash offers skyrocketed off the tariff news, but when the futures came down 50 …

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Uncertainty in the market…

The USDA report from last week is old news, it’s all about the trade wars today. Plus, a new report from Reuters suggests the EPA secretly allowed a profitable refiner a waiver from the biofuels mandate.  All of this buzz caused significant market volatility.  Everyone is unsure what’s going to …

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Profitability on straddle trades

Sometimes ideas for trades come from unlikely circumstances. While I was presenting a grain marketing seminar in February a farmer said he would never consider selling options because of the risk of large price movements. While I understand his fear, I don’t agree. Farmers’ fear of selling options can be …

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