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Market Analysis



Buying puts

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Arguably the Aug. 10 USDA report is the biggest of the year because it provides the first estimated yields for the upcoming harvest. With population estimated counts the highest ever, and ear weight estimates lower than the past two years but still on …

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Taking a look at past and present trades

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC I suspect everyone is waiting for the Aug. 10 USDA report that includes estimated ear weights and yields. I think if the average national yield is 175, $4 Dec corn is likely. Then every bushel above that value decreases Dec futures by 10 …

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Consider storage expenses in marketing

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC I’ve noticed far fewer bad corn crop pictures and farmer complaints this year versus previous years. Most farmers are generally happy with crop conditions. Usually by mid-July at least some farmers are complaining about drought conditions and wondering why corn isn’t at $5. …

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Speculating and hedging

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Right now many analysts and advisors are suggesting corn and beans are too cheap and prices should rally. This makes sense because U.S. corn prices are the cheapest in the world, which means exports should increase. Elevator managers that I have spoken with indicate …

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So what are you going to do now?

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC The most recent USDA report showed some potential for the corn market with strong demand expected to continue. This could mean current corn prices are near a bottom. However, the great weather throughout June and early July suggests the national yield could be another …

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Marketing in a trade war

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Its official, the U.S. is now in a trade war. Last week some said a last minute negotiation could stop it, but that didn’t happen. It’s uncertain if this will last a few days, weeks, months or years. No one really knows the outcome …

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The gamble of lifting hedges

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC The USDA confirmed there will be slightly more bean acres planted than corn acres for the first time in over 35 years. There were 1 million more corn acres and a half million more bean acres planted than what was estimated back in …

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Marketing on what is known

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Practically everyone in the grain trading world is saying “I didn’t see that coming” after a 70-cent corn price drop over the last 30 days and a $2 per bushel drop in soybeans. I know I’m not the only one disappointed that prices …

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Selling corn before harvest

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC   The USDA increased the export demand pace for corn. Should the U.S. produce a trend line corn yield of 174 bushels per acre this year, then carryout would drop from the current level of 2.1 billion to just below 1.6 billion by …

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