Market Analysis

20170418_120151 (800x500)

Don’t give away your risk premiums with specialty crops

Last week many speculated as many as 2 million wheat acres were damaged after cold weather struck much of the Midwest. While this caused a nice wheat futures rally Monday, it was short-lived because this represents only about 100 million bushels, or 10% of forecasted total wheat carryout. This is likely not a big enough [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
money dollars

Identifying good brokers

Planting Progress On our farm in SE Nebraska corn planting is complete and beans are underway. The balance of the central corn states are making progress on corn plantings and are likely on pace with the five-year average. While north of I-90 weather is limiting planting. This is still within normal range, but if cold [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
planter

Making money when the market isn’t moving

Corn Corn futures decreased 14 cents last week. There could be a 60-cent weather premium already built into Dec corn futures. Trend-line yields would likely push prices back to $3.25 at harvest. Weather is key variable for the next few months. It’s still too early to worry about not getting the crop planted. With the [...]

Print Friendly
Read More

Markets watching as planting season gets rolling

Weather will once again dominate grain markets for the next three months. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is not currently seeing an active El Niño or La Niña. It is extremely important to monitor for that activity. The Center does see increasing odds for an El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere by late summer or [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
flooded corn

A look at factors that have a big impact on farm profits

Beans The Tuesday USDA report surprised many with an increase in world bean stocks, making levels the highest in history. With stocks to use rations also very high (third highest ever), conditions are not bullish and significant rallies are very unlikely. To put this into perspective, current U.S. stock levels are more than double levels [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
1255 Early Riser Planter with Precision Planting_0341_07-14

A lesson in “risk off hedging”

Weather forecasts are favorable for planting the next two weeks, so the market is expecting the 2017 corn will be planted easily. This news combined with positive long-term forecasts means the market is pulling back some, suggesting the possibility of another record corn crop. Funds reduced their length in bean futures and increased shorts in [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
Smokey bear

Corn, soybeans, and wheat bearish

Higher corn and soybean production in Brazil is bearish. U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged, soybean ending stocks up 10 million bushels, wheat ending stocks up 30 million bushels. Watch the close in relation to noon time price activity. Before the report corn was unchanged, soybeans down 5 cents, wheat unchanged. Shortly after the report corn [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
farm land at planting

Running the farm like a business

On Mar 31st (11AM CST) the USDA will announce the 2017 US planting intention estimates. Arguably, this report could have the biggest impact on the market in 2017. Until next Friday, there is little else to talk about. Many are expecting estimates of 91 million corn acres and 89 million bean acres. If the report [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
soybean

The difference between a speculator and a farmer

The South American harvest is expected to be a record with few shipping problems. Expect the market to be range-bound until March 31, when U.S. planted acre estimates are published.   Market action With few South American harvest concerns, I moved some of my bean hedges, which were originally placed anticipating a South American production [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
image001

Capitalizing on wish orders

The Thursday USDA report, as expected, held few surprises. The bean yields in South America continue to grow and could weigh on prices down the road. News of bird flu outbreaks concerned traders this week. It’s still uncertain how widespread the disease will be, so the market is a little shaky. A widespread outbreak would [...]

Print Friendly
Read More