Market Analysis

combine

The combine seat as a marketing strategy

The 8/10 USDA report caught many off guard last week. Even I thought the USDA would trim back corn yield estimates more than they did. As always happens after these reports, the bulls and bears debated the accuracy of these reports. Bulls say the vegetative health maps indicate widespread problems, while bears point out that [...]

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Warren Co. corn

Crops looking average with pockets of damage

It appears the market is just waiting for the updated USDA corn yield estimate on 8/10/17. Once published, the market will debate why it’s incorrect. Generally the market is trading corn based upon a national yield assumption of around 165-166. With a surprise below 165, $4 corn is a possibility again. An estimate above 166, [...]

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Profiting in a sideways market

The latest crop condition estimates are the lowest since 2013 (corn down 2% and beans down 4%). Also, time is running out for the western half of Iowa to get enough rain to produce average corn yields. Forecasts shift every six hours, which contributes to farmer and market uncertainties. This week it rained in the [...]

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A beautiful sunset over a Darke County waterway, emphasis on the water. Photo by Greg McGlinch.

Grand slams vs. strike outs in marketing

There is no doubt it will be hot for the next few weeks, it’s mid-July after all. However, it’s the extent of dryness that is uncertain. Every day weather models show varying possibilities, which causes market fluctuations. Iowa, for example, is living on subsoil moisture reserves for now. This may be depleted if it doesn’t [...]

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Scheve July3

Selling hope to profit the farm

The market was surprised last week when the USDA increased corn acre planting estimates by 1 million. The USDA also indicated that stocks may be higher than the market was anticipating. These adjustments could really hurt the chances of a major corn rally for the rest of the year. At this point, it will take [...]

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wheat head

Report is bullish soybean, and wheat; somewhat negative corn

USDA estimates of U.S. corn acres were 90.9 million acres, soybean acres were 89.5 million acres, and wheat acres were 45.7 million acres.  June 1 corn stocks were 5.225 billion bushels, soybean stocks were 963 million bushels, and wheat stocks were 1.184 billion bushels. Soybeans were higher due to less than expected stocks, wheat was higher [...]

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100_5259_-_horizontal_corn_pile_-_under_200

Managing a sideways market with downside protection

Weather is driving the market right now. As forecasts adjust twice a day, the market can shift direction abruptly. At this point it’s really difficult for the market to fully estimate the actual amount of stress the corn crop has sustained so far and its impact on overall future yields. Contributing to the uncertainty is [...]

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sidedressing

Determining your breakeven

Corn Corn showed signs of life with hot and dry weather forecasted throughout the Midwest the next two weeks. Realistically prolonged dry weather is necessary for a significant rally since subsoil moisture has been plentiful. Trend line yields are definitely still possible. Two good rains (one after Father’s Day and another after the 4th) is really all [...]

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Vonstein

Bullish or bearish as planting season wraps up?

Last week the USDA published the first crop conditions report for 2017. This report is really irrelevant because historically it has very little correlation to final yields. No crop is made or lost in May. Weather will now be driving the market with the most important dates being 6/15 to 7/15. As a rule, hot [...]

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Is a wakeboarding farmer an reliable market signal?

Being objective about the markets (in a wet planting season)

With the constant rain in Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, southern Illinois and western Ohio, farmers are getting worried they won’t get corn planted. Some are surprised the market hasn’t responded with a rally. Prices likely haven’t increased for the following reasons. As a percent of the total U.S. production, these areas collectively don’t produce a lot [...]

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