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Market Analysis



A look at market carry and spreads

Early last week the market was positive, but it turned negative at the end. Right now corn seems range bound from $3.30 to $3.50. Slow harvest progress has helped keep prices from testing the lows. This week however looks to be a wide open window for harvest to move forward …

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When will we see the harvest lows?

Corn and soybean harvest is in progress for Ohio and the Midwest. September’s many dry days along with temperatures in the 80s and above greatly aided corn harvest for producers. Those warm, dry days reduced corn moisture significantly after Sept. 15. Numerous reports indicated it had dropped five points or …

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Trade on likelihood not hope

Have we hit the market low? Many wonder if the market low has passed because markets frequently rally going into October. I’m not sure for several reasons. There are hints that China may start exporting some corn for the first time in 10 years. Harvest is starting slower than usual. …

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Report friendly for corn prices

Today’s report was friendly for corn, neutral for soybeans, and negative for wheat. However, wheat is not moving sharply lower in spite of wheat stocks much higher than expected. Today’s USDA reports consist of quarterly grain stocks as of Sept. 1 along with U.S. wheat production estimates for 2017. Typically …

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Too much wheat impacting markets

USDA reduced corn yield estimates one bushel and raised bean yield estimates two bushels. The market reacted with corn prices decreasing 4 cents and bean prices 14 for the week. This isn’t unusual though.  Prices typically trend lower from the report until right before harvest.  It’s happened 13 out of …

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Soybean marketing success in 2015

Beans Bean demand remains strong for old and new crop, which caused a nice rally this week. However, there continues to be bearish concerns that China’s 2016/17 imports may not be as high as forecasted — 40 million bushels may not get sold pending who is predicting. Right now, everyone …

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Bearish numbers for soybeans

The report today was bearish for soybeans with ending stocks increasing from 330 million bushels to 365 million bushels. The U.S. soybean yield was estimated at 50.6, compared to last month at 48.9, while trade estimates were 49.2 Old crop soybean exports did increase by 60 million bushels which was …

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How low do we go?

Farmers certainly don’t want to be sellers at this price level. However, some were probably forced out of positions they carried for the last year on “free” DP grain that came to an end on Aug. 31. Many are saying the end is near, but that may mean 10% from …

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Understanding stocks to use ratio

Sep corn futures breached the $3.18 low from two years ago. This opens the door to test the magical $3 level, which has been unseen since 2009. Wheat traded well under $4 for the first time in 10 years. No one knows when the low will happen in corn. It …

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