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Market Analysis



How low do we go?

Farmers certainly don’t want to be sellers at this price level. However, some were probably forced out of positions they carried for the last year on “free” DP grain that came to an end on Aug. 31. Many are saying the end is near, but that may mean 10% from …

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Understanding stocks to use ratio

Sep corn futures breached the $3.18 low from two years ago. This opens the door to test the magical $3 level, which has been unseen since 2009. Wheat traded well under $4 for the first time in 10 years. No one knows when the low will happen in corn. It …

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Missed marketing opportunities

There continues to be reports of corn ear tip back.  In my opinion social media is exaggerating this problem. There are definitely isolated cases, but it doesn’t seem to be a widespread problem. I suspect the people spreading these “reports” are likely unsold or long and hoping for a market rally. …

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How far off is the USDA?

The USDA increased the average national yield estimate to 175.  Some disagree with this estimate, saying the USDA is using record ear weight, which isn’t likely considering the intense summer heat throughout the Midwest. Others are questioning low population count estimates on the reports, which also doesn’t make much sense …

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August WASDE report bearish, watch the close

Today’s report is a bearish report. Both corn and soybean production and yields were above trade expectations and near the high end of estimates. Corn production was estimated at 15.153 billion bushels with a yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. Ending stocks were estimated at 2.409 billion bushels. The US …

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Crop observations from the west

Everyone is waiting for the first USDA crop yield estimate of the year on Aug. 12. The only way corn will push above $3.50 at this point will be a surprise yield decrease. The trade believes this crop is getting bigger, not smaller, but it’s still unclear how big. Since farmers aren’t …

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No dome. No doom. No rally.

Corn Some estimates indicate crop yields could be record-breaking this year. Good weather combined with technological advances in seed genetics and traits makes this a possibility. Record yields would put tremendous pressure on the market, potentially pushing prices under $3 for the first time since Sep 2009 in the long …

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Why did corn prices spike, then drop?

Corn prices dropped $1 per bushel in the last three weeks, which was unexpected by many.  Several sayings are now popular: “there is a lot of summer to go, prices will bounce back” and “there will be more demand with cheaper prices, so prices have to go up.” There isn’t …

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