Market Analysis

Darke County flooding after 5.1 inches of rain. Photo by Scott Labig.

Fast moving prices with big swings likely in coming weeks

A phone call last month was a first for me as to its ending. As I was talking with a customer mid-morning, I heard these words at a little faster pace, “Doug, I have to go. I see a groundhog I have been trying to get for months.” I think the next sound I heard [...]

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Photo by Erin Cole at Trupointe Cooperative.

Futures offer marketing flexibility

Reasons to be bullish corn: • Technical picture for corn futures is bullish • Indiana and Ohio are clearly having production issues • Illinois growing conditions continue to fade • USDA has dropped planted acres and harvested acres • Trade believes the final yield is closer to 162 than the USDA’s 166 • 2015/16 corn [...]

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money dollars

Set a marketing game plan

Corn USDA surprised Chicago analysts last week by reducing 2015 corn acres estimates — 200K planted but 500K harvested. This could reduce 2015 bushels by 80 to100 million, and ultimately support prices. Still questions remain: • Will harvested acres stay low? • Will USDA revise estimates in the future? • Will excessive rainfall cause a [...]

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Costs and returns from holding grain

Where can corn and bean prices go from here?  Corn looks to be in a range of $3 to $4.40. The soybean range could be $8 to $10. Following are some of the market movers that could take prices higher or lower.   Reasons to be bullish corn: • Too much rain — nitrogen losses [...]

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Dollar drivers

A number of recent trading sessions have been marked by a frustrating pattern. Overnight, grains will start a brave little rally based on fundamental production worries like rained-out planting or flooded, sprouting wheat. At 7:00 a.m., they’ll be gaining a few cents to counteract the brutish losses of previous days, and then — wham! Something [...]

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Hedging to maximize farm profitability with tight margins

Soybeans Due to heavy rain, 6 million soybean acres in Kansas and Missouri are not yet planted. How many acres might end up in prevent plant? Two million acres, or about 100 million bushels, while significant would probably not have that large of an effect on the market. Even if none of these acres are planted, the [...]

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soybeans emerging

Soybean basis selling strategy

There was a small rally for the week in corn and beans.  While nice to see, it was probably caused mostly by a drop in the value of the dollar. Speculators bought grain to cover their short positions and pocketed a little profit. A few small bad weather pockets (i.e. frost in Manitoba, heavy Midwest [...]

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Sleep like a baby even with nightmare markets.

Tips for sleeping well when markets are a nightmare

The EPA released their ethanol and bio-fuel requirements last week and the estimates were close to expected results, so the market changed very little. Nothing else big happened, which made the market a little painful to watch as it generally drifted lower. Curious, I reviewed what I wrote a year ago to see if I [...]

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money dollars

Saving money to make money

Corn For corn, a significant rally will be difficult with the amount of unpriced old crop and another good growing year. End users tell me any board rallies will continue to shake some bushels loose. Many unpriced farmers continue to wait, because they don’t have an exit strategy. Some farmers (who don’t have marketing plans) [...]

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1255 Early Riser Planter with Precision Planting_0341_07-14

Precision grain marketing

While planting last week I looked at all the technology in the tractor cab, as auto-steer guided me down the field. It amazed me how sophisticated precision planting is. Farmers now use technology that puts the ideal number of seeds based upon field conditions with such precision to optimize yield. Despite how complex and complicated [...]

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