Market Analysis

corn harvest

Buying calls is gambling

  Markets remained range-bound last week. There was some discussion the Chinese, who control much of the world’s corn carry out, may grind some for ethanol. Generally China has avoided the food versus fuel debate, but some of their corn is from 2010 and is declining in quality. If China would increase ethanol production, it could [...]

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corn ear

Are corn yields on their way up?

The October USDA supply and demand report often has the potential to be a game changer. Game changers can also be called surprises, which in turn create violent price moves. With that report USDA has the ability to gather actual harvest data to give a much more representative report for U.S. yields. Previous reports were [...]

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autumn corn harvest

Get to know your marketing tools

We finished harvesting on our farm in southeast Nebraska last Wednesday. Yields were average for irrigated corn and soybeans, which was expected. However, we were pleased that dryland corn matched last year’s record production and dryland soybeans were 20% higher than the last 10-year average. Reports indicate these results (i.e. corn meeting expectations and bean [...]

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fall harvest

Soybeans slightly friendly, corn and wheat neutral

Overall the report was not a huge shocker. No big price movement took place at noon.  USDA estimated corn production at 13.555 billion bushels, last month it was 13.585 billion bushels. The corn yield came in at 168 bushels, compared to 167.5 last month. That is a bit bearish. Traders were expecting the corn yield [...]

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corn harvest from above

What should a farmer do with grain in a commercial facility?

Friday’s bean rally may be attributed to the Brazilian Central Bank propping up their currency, which will likely slow farmer selling there in the short-term. Also, dry weather in Australia is helping support wheat prices. With both beans and wheat prices higher, corn also increased. U.S. farmers aren’t selling going into harvest, which is supportive. Soybeans and [...]

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Preblecornfield

Selling calls can set up success

The Fed didn’t change interest rates last week, which helps farmers in the short-term. The dollar won’t increase in value, making it easier to export grain. Also borrowing money for operation costs won’t likely increase. The corn market is under pressure, likely from the start of harvest. Yield results are wide-ranging, causing price volatility. Some [...]

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bean harvest in wagon

Are price swings ahead?

The trade was surprised by the USDA reducing corn yield estimates, but at the same time raising bean yield estimates. What does this mean? Corn Carryout for the 2015/16 crop was reduced to under 1.6 billion bushels. Many think this is bullish and corn won’t trade below $3.50. The top end of the trading range could [...]

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fall harvest

Will Sept. 11 supply and demand report be a game changer?

What do the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina all have in common? If your answer was: “soybean producers,” you would be close but missed the nail. All three had record soybean crush during the month of July. Soybeans are days from harvest taking place in a big fashion. For many parts of Ohio the dry weather [...]

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money dollars

Hope is a poor marketing strategy

The market feels like it is in free-fall and the lack of strong exports is discouraging. One silver-lining, as futures continue to drop, export demand may eventually increase. World grain supplies are still high, which could keep a cap on prices for a long time. It will likely take a supply disruption to change the [...]

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Henrycorn3

What is the difference between technical and fundamental trading?

The stock market is jittery and commodities seem weak. China’s economic problems continue to plague the world. World markets are trying to determine if China’s economic issues are a short-term blip or a long-term problem. Lack of strong export numbers is also raising concerns with traders. One small positive — there were some export sales on the [...]

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