Market Analysis

Considering corn versus beans for 2016

Pro Farmer estimates are showing a 164.3 corn national average, while the USDA was 168.8.  This wasn’t a big surprise to the trade. Many feel that the final number will be somewhere in-between. We will know in almost 30 days as harvest should be nearly to I-80.  This week harvest was as far north as Wichita, KS. Reports of [...]

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Boost grain marketing with futures, basis and carry

The experts weren’t expecting the USDA to raise yield estimates.  Many don’t believe the numbers, but everyone is now trading off of these new projections.  Farmers probably won’t be selling at these prices.   In the past when farmers waited futures eventually creep back up to $4 corn and $10 soybeans.  We’ll see if that strategy [...]

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Bearish USDA report

Bearish. That one word wraps up today’s numbers for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Not only were the yield estimates for both corn and soybeans higher than July, they are much higher. The trade had expected production, yield, and ending stocks to be declining for corn and soybeans. They did not. USDA estimated the corn yield [...]

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Summer corn and soybean highs may be set

Crop prospects are improving slightly for many since early June, while the amount of exports are not, as U.S. corn and soybean export projections continue to be under pressure. The U.S. is facing stiffer competition from other exporting countries, especially Brazil and Argentina. USDA is currently projecting new crop exports of corn at 1.875 billion [...]

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Had to get up close to see this field of soybeans in Grover Hill, Ohio.

Soybean marketing action

Old crop soybeans remain inverted (meaning they are valued higher in the nearby futures compared to future futures months). Translation — the markets want soybeans now, not later. Additionally, as futures drop, basis levels have been increasing (likely driven by domestic soybean meal demand).  Some think this was caused by the USDA over-estimating last year’s [...]

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corn harvest from above

Overcoming the fear of margin calls

It’s pollination week in much of the Corn Belt. In general, the weather is supportive with warm weather and adequate moisture levels. Now the focus turns to estimating the yields across the Midwest. Interestingly Kansas and South Dakota planted the same amount of acres to corn as Indiana and Ohio according to USDA forecasts. Usually Kansas and [...]

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Darke County flooding after 5.1 inches of rain. Photo by Scott Labig.

Fast moving prices with big swings likely in coming weeks

A phone call last month was a first for me as to its ending. As I was talking with a customer mid-morning, I heard these words at a little faster pace, “Doug, I have to go. I see a groundhog I have been trying to get for months.” I think the next sound I heard [...]

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Photo by Erin Cole at Trupointe Cooperative.

Futures offer marketing flexibility

Reasons to be bullish corn: • Technical picture for corn futures is bullish • Indiana and Ohio are clearly having production issues • Illinois growing conditions continue to fade • USDA has dropped planted acres and harvested acres • Trade believes the final yield is closer to 162 than the USDA’s 166 • 2015/16 corn [...]

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money dollars

Set a marketing game plan

Corn USDA surprised Chicago analysts last week by reducing 2015 corn acres estimates — 200K planted but 500K harvested. This could reduce 2015 bushels by 80 to100 million, and ultimately support prices. Still questions remain: • Will harvested acres stay low? • Will USDA revise estimates in the future? • Will excessive rainfall cause a [...]

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Costs and returns from holding grain

Where can corn and bean prices go from here?  Corn looks to be in a range of $3 to $4.40. The soybean range could be $8 to $10. Following are some of the market movers that could take prices higher or lower.   Reasons to be bullish corn: • Too much rain — nitrogen losses [...]

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