Market Analysis

100_5259_-_horizontal_corn_pile_-_under_200

When does it make sense to sell again?

Corn has moved 20 cents off the lows in the recent weeks.  We seem to be range bound yet and lots of farmer movement has been noted across the U.S. Farmers have asked me lately when it makes sense to sell again.  There is no easy answer because of all the variables: What are their [...]

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corn in the wind

Sideways prices

Grain prices the first two weeks of January were stellar — stellarly boring and sideways. The trend of prices moving lower last fall did not change. The past two months there has been a lot of negative news in the market. However, there was some friendly news with the Jan. 12 USDA crop report. There [...]

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soybean sunrise

The costs of free DP

The season’s biggest report was published last week and was mostly neutral for farmers. Basically, yields didn’t meet expectations, but neither did demand. World stocks are adequate to burdensome and with so much 2015 (and 2014) grain still unpriced, a significant rally is unlikely without a supply disruption. Factoring in 2016, which is largely unpriced, [...]

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grain

Market action for 2016

With the end of 2015, markets continue to trade in a very narrow range.  Unfortunately, the holiday rally many hoped for didn’t happen. Soybeans While the weather hasn’t been perfect in South America, rains have been timely. If this continues $8 futures could result, though $9 may be tested if conditions turn dry. Realistically, the [...]

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soybean field

Lower exports and sluggish demand growth holding prices down

I hope, in spite of the dismal grain prices currently in front of us, that you can see the humor in many situations and keep your overall perspective cheerful for all. Demand for U.S. grains now that we have reached 2016 continues to be boring, stagnant, and uneventful. During the last week of December 2015, [...]

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FSR corn

Unprofitable grain prices continue

Grain prices continue to be low, stressful, and unprofitable for Ohio and U.S. producers. While March CBOT corn last summer on July 13 had reached $4.62, it has spent little time above the $4 since October. It then fell to $3.64 mid-November. Corn basis levels continue to be historic and record setting. Producers in Ohio [...]

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cards

Storage and casinos

Last week the Argentina government allowed the peso to float versus the dollar and other world currency, causing the value to fall nearly 40%. This meant Argentinian farmers saw their stored beans increase substantially in value overnight. Eventually these farmers should be big sellers, as they are sitting on a large portion of the worlds’ [...]

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100_5259_-_horizontal_corn_pile_-_under_200

Selling when a rally is unlikely

This week several unknowns caused market volatility. Concern over the biofuel mandate and potential legal challenges regarding blender credits caused bean prices to drop. Uncertainty over Argentina’s agricultural policy now with the new government in power. Will export taxes be completely lifted on corn and wheat in Argentina? How fast will the Argentinean bean export [...]

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money2

Use strategy to capture market opportunity

Fundamentally, this market doesn’t have a lot of upside unless South America turns dry. It appears some farmers are taking advantage of these rallies to catch up on sales, but many farmers are still uncertain. This is why a marketing plan is so helpful. It can help take the uncertainty out of decision-making. Soybeans Beans showed [...]

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Preblecorn

Little excitement in today’s USDA numbers

Conclusion, boring report. Santa, back to work. Today’s report was vanilla and boring. No big changes that sparked huge price movement in either direction. Shortly before the report corn was up 3 cents, soybeans up 1 cent, with wheat up 8 cents. At 12:15 corn was unchanged, soybeans were down 3 cents, and wheat was [...]

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