Market Analysis

Storm_clouds

Finding weather trends

Corn continues to trade in a 20-cent range. Weather conditions appear favorable for early planting, which makes above trend-line yields possible. While some in the market estimate there is enough weather premium in Dec futures at $3.75, many think above average yields will bring $3 corn or lower.  Many farmers are hoping for a 50-cent weather [...]

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Arend Farms 7

Running the farm as a business

A profitable farm is more complicated than planting crops and hoping they pay the bills at the end of the year. Farmers should consider their operations as a company with multiple profit centers working to a common goal. Each profit center must “pull its own weight” without drawing profits from another division. Successful farmers understand [...]

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$3 corn2

USDA offers plentiful numbers for the sideways market to digest

Last month USDA held their annual outlook conference. During this conference they provide 10-year projections for U.S. grains. Typically, during the first day they provide acres estimates for U.S. grains. Then during the second day they publish additional numbers that include supply and demand estimates, including ending stocks. There are a bunch of numbers. To [...]

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money dollars

Waiting for a price rally limits the potential for a rally

Citi Bank indicated that the Chinese economic slowdown will likely continue to burden world markets, which could eventually leading to a global recession. They lowered their world growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.6%. This might mean that crude oil prices will not likely rally, which would keep ethanol and corn prices in check. At a [...]

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baseball

Grain marketing in baseball terms

Corn continues its sideways trade since harvest. Some have suggested that a chart pattern may signal a small rally in what is still a long-term bear market. However, the rally may be limited to just a dime near term. Longer term weather will be the biggest factor. Reports indicate U.S. corn is competitive globally (which [...]

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Darkecorn

Too much grain, not enough demand

Goldman Sachs estimates that crude oil may trade below $20. Ethanol plants are running on extremely tight margins. ADM announced they may even sell some ethanol plants. Japan has interest rates at negative values to curb deflation. These headlines are not bullish long-term for corn and beans.  Combine this with good growing conditions in South America, [...]

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Butlercorn

Factors that matter in your marketing plan

Markets continued to trade sideways.  Farmers are selling at $3.70 futures and buyers are able to widen basis and still buy it. The flat price value of corn isn’t moving much. Market action Options Expiration On 1/22/16 a $3.80 Feb corn option that I had sold on 12/10/15 for 8 cents expired worthless.  This is [...]

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No major surprises today from the USDA

Prior to the report grains were all 1-2 cents lower. The DOW was 80 lower, and crude oil was 30 cents lower. Following the report corn was unchanged, soybeans were up 1 cent, and wheat was unchanged. Corn exports were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.65 billion bushels. That is not a surprise. Corn used [...]

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New grain bin Trupointe

Grain prices may not get needed boost from exports

Grain prices during the month of January did little to encourage the bulls. They are holding hard and fast to their 2015 corn as they expect $4 or more yet to come this spring. Likewise those holding 2015 soybeans would like at least $9.50. Corn basis levels remained extremely flat as well during January. A [...]

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100_5259_-_horizontal_corn_pile_-_under_200

When does it make sense to sell again?

Corn has moved 20 cents off the lows in the recent weeks.  We seem to be range bound yet and lots of farmer movement has been noted across the U.S. Farmers have asked me lately when it makes sense to sell again.  There is no easy answer because of all the variables: What are their [...]

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