Market Analysis

corn harvest from above

What should a farmer do with grain in a commercial facility?

Friday’s bean rally may be attributed to the Brazilian Central Bank propping up their currency, which will likely slow farmer selling there in the short-term. Also, dry weather in Australia is helping support wheat prices. With both beans and wheat prices higher, corn also increased. U.S. farmers aren’t selling going into harvest, which is supportive. Soybeans and [...]

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Preblecornfield

Selling calls can set up success

The Fed didn’t change interest rates last week, which helps farmers in the short-term. The dollar won’t increase in value, making it easier to export grain. Also borrowing money for operation costs won’t likely increase. The corn market is under pressure, likely from the start of harvest. Yield results are wide-ranging, causing price volatility. Some [...]

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bean harvest in wagon

Are price swings ahead?

The trade was surprised by the USDA reducing corn yield estimates, but at the same time raising bean yield estimates. What does this mean? Corn Carryout for the 2015/16 crop was reduced to under 1.6 billion bushels. Many think this is bullish and corn won’t trade below $3.50. The top end of the trading range could [...]

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fall harvest

Will Sept. 11 supply and demand report be a game changer?

What do the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina all have in common? If your answer was: “soybean producers,” you would be close but missed the nail. All three had record soybean crush during the month of July. Soybeans are days from harvest taking place in a big fashion. For many parts of Ohio the dry weather [...]

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money dollars

Hope is a poor marketing strategy

The market feels like it is in free-fall and the lack of strong exports is discouraging. One silver-lining, as futures continue to drop, export demand may eventually increase. World grain supplies are still high, which could keep a cap on prices for a long time. It will likely take a supply disruption to change the [...]

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Henrycorn3

What is the difference between technical and fundamental trading?

The stock market is jittery and commodities seem weak. China’s economic problems continue to plague the world. World markets are trying to determine if China’s economic issues are a short-term blip or a long-term problem. Lack of strong export numbers is also raising concerns with traders. One small positive — there were some export sales on the [...]

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Considering corn versus beans for 2016

Pro Farmer estimates are showing a 164.3 corn national average, while the USDA was 168.8.  This wasn’t a big surprise to the trade. Many feel that the final number will be somewhere in-between. We will know in almost 30 days as harvest should be nearly to I-80.  This week harvest was as far north as Wichita, KS. Reports of [...]

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Boost grain marketing with futures, basis and carry

The experts weren’t expecting the USDA to raise yield estimates.  Many don’t believe the numbers, but everyone is now trading off of these new projections.  Farmers probably won’t be selling at these prices.   In the past when farmers waited futures eventually creep back up to $4 corn and $10 soybeans.  We’ll see if that strategy [...]

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Bearish USDA report

Bearish. That one word wraps up today’s numbers for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Not only were the yield estimates for both corn and soybeans higher than July, they are much higher. The trade had expected production, yield, and ending stocks to be declining for corn and soybeans. They did not. USDA estimated the corn yield [...]

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Summer corn and soybean highs may be set

Crop prospects are improving slightly for many since early June, while the amount of exports are not, as U.S. corn and soybean export projections continue to be under pressure. The U.S. is facing stiffer competition from other exporting countries, especially Brazil and Argentina. USDA is currently projecting new crop exports of corn at 1.875 billion [...]

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