Market Analysis

Warren corn

Corn basis strategy

Corn The Tuesday USDA report didn’t hold any surprises last week. However, the Monday afternoon report showed farmers planted 40% of acres in one week. Some Chicago analysts say there is a downside to this quick corn planting. Weather within days of July 1 now becomes extremely critical for pollination across the Midwest. Weather variances [...]

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Three basic market factors behind understanding crop prices

There was no bullish news last week. Without a large-scale weather issue, Chinese analysts are expecting a 7% increase in corn production next year, which would lower demand overseas for our product.  In the U.S. weather so far has been the right mix of rain and sunshine, which will provide a good start to the [...]

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No, not call a cell, sell a call!

Selling calls can boost profits

The market is quiet this week. Farmers are busy. Planting started in the west, while farmers in the east and south are waiting for soil to dry and the weather to warm. As always there are many “levers” affecting grain prices. Arguments and estimates can be made regarding many factors towards prices.   Reasons to [...]

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$3 corn2

Are you speculating or hedging?

Corn There was another USDA report last week estimating usage and carryout. It had few surprises; corn carryout raised slightly (this was projected in the March 31st stock reports), which means there is more corn stored on the farm than the trade previously estimated. Expect little corn excitement in the next two months. With plenty [...]

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Break even price a vital number in crop marketing

Until there is something big to trade, corn will remain range-bound between $3.75 and $3.95 on the May futures. Farmers are not facing cash-flow issues, so selling slows as prices fall. Because the farmer still holds massive amounts of corn it keeps pressure on prices at the top end of the range. I expect this [...]

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Join Ohio Ag Net, Ohio’s Country Journal and Archbold Equipment Co. to learn about grain storage marketing strategies

Ohio’s Country Journal and Ohio Ag Net are teaming up with Archbold Equipment Co. to bring some valuable grain storage marketing strategies to northern Ohio’s corn and soybean growers. On Thursday March 12 at the Archbold Equipment Admin Office at 4982 St. Rt. 66 in Archbold, long-time grain merchandiser Jon Scheve, with Superior Feed Ingredients, [...]

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bins

More grain bin economics

Holidays around the world caused trading to slow last week, which may be why the markets were up one day only to fall the next. The U.S. celebrated President’s Day on Monday. Carnival was Tuesday throughout South America. And, the Chinese Lunar New Year fell on Thursday and celebration continues into this week. Brazil reports indicate [...]

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money2

Grim outlook for crop prices

There are many eyes watching the near future of the crop markets and they nearly all agree that the outlook is grim for the short term but strong over the long term. Mike Mock from The Anderson’s, Inc. recently talked about the market outlook and some strategies for farms to weather the tough times. “You [...]

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grainbins

Does adding storage pay?

In general, the markets tend to trade sideways in February. And, with no big surprises in the February USDA report, everyone is looking to the March 31 report for market direction, which will estimate corn versus bean acres. Summer weather will then be the big market driver after March. For a $4.50+ corn rally, there will [...]

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USDA offers few changes and several yawns in report

Yawn. Today’s report was pretty boring, a few changes, nothing major. No big price movements followed this report.  Corn ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.827 billion bushels. Corn for ethanol was increased 75 million bushels but feed demand was lowered 25 million bushels.  Ending stocks for corn were less than traders had expected. That [...]

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