Market Analysis

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Break even price a vital number in crop marketing

Until there is something big to trade, corn will remain range-bound between $3.75 and $3.95 on the May futures. Farmers are not facing cash-flow issues, so selling slows as prices fall. Because the farmer still holds massive amounts of corn it keeps pressure on prices at the top end of the range. I expect this [...]

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Join Ohio Ag Net, Ohio’s Country Journal and Archbold Equipment Co. to learn about grain storage marketing strategies

Ohio’s Country Journal and Ohio Ag Net are teaming up with Archbold Equipment Co. to bring some valuable grain storage marketing strategies to northern Ohio’s corn and soybean growers. On Thursday March 12 at the Archbold Equipment Admin Office at 4982 St. Rt. 66 in Archbold, long-time grain merchandiser Jon Scheve, with Superior Feed Ingredients, [...]

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bins

More grain bin economics

Holidays around the world caused trading to slow last week, which may be why the markets were up one day only to fall the next. The U.S. celebrated President’s Day on Monday. Carnival was Tuesday throughout South America. And, the Chinese Lunar New Year fell on Thursday and celebration continues into this week. Brazil reports indicate [...]

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money2

Grim outlook for crop prices

There are many eyes watching the near future of the crop markets and they nearly all agree that the outlook is grim for the short term but strong over the long term. Mike Mock from The Anderson’s, Inc. recently talked about the market outlook and some strategies for farms to weather the tough times. “You [...]

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grainbins

Does adding storage pay?

In general, the markets tend to trade sideways in February. And, with no big surprises in the February USDA report, everyone is looking to the March 31 report for market direction, which will estimate corn versus bean acres. Summer weather will then be the big market driver after March. For a $4.50+ corn rally, there will [...]

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USDA offers few changes and several yawns in report

Yawn. Today’s report was pretty boring, a few changes, nothing major. No big price movements followed this report.  Corn ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.827 billion bushels. Corn for ethanol was increased 75 million bushels but feed demand was lowered 25 million bushels.  Ending stocks for corn were less than traders had expected. That [...]

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Arend Farms 7

Take time to analyze your farm as a business

  For those who have never seen the Chicago Board of Trade trading floor, your time is limited. On July 2, 2015 all futures pits in Chicago will be closed, due to a lack of use and it will save stock holders $10 million per year. Computers and electronic trading have replaced humans for 99% [...]

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Preblecornfield

Margins continuing to tighten in 2015

Spring is just around the corner. It is hard to believe that in 70 days or so, spring planting of corn and soybeans could be underway across Ohio and the Midwest. Many producers have already made decisions regarding the mix of corn and soybeans to be planted this spring. Margins and profits per acre are [...]

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blackbear

Prepare to battle the bear

Corn highlights Last week corn dipped below the 100-day moving average, which usually indicates the market will move lower going forward. However, farmers aren’t selling, so many are unsure what to expect. Corn exports are difficult due to lower priced corn coming from the Ukraine. Warm weather in the South last week was hurting feed demand, especially in [...]

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winter barn

Selling forward with a production budget in mind

Where will corn and bean prices go? Corn has a big technical resistance at $3.77 (100-day moving average). So far, the market has held this price as a floor. Some still estimate $4.25 as an upside target. Fundamentally, farmers haven’t been sellers much below $4, so with the board around $3.85 some end users can’t source corn without increasing basis. This could [...]

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