Market Analysis

money2

Grim outlook for crop prices

There are many eyes watching the near future of the crop markets and they nearly all agree that the outlook is grim for the short term but strong over the long term. Mike Mock from The Anderson’s, Inc. recently talked about the market outlook and some strategies for farms to weather the tough times. “You [...]

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grainbins

Does adding storage pay?

In general, the markets tend to trade sideways in February. And, with no big surprises in the February USDA report, everyone is looking to the March 31 report for market direction, which will estimate corn versus bean acres. Summer weather will then be the big market driver after March. For a $4.50+ corn rally, there will [...]

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USDA offers few changes and several yawns in report

Yawn. Today’s report was pretty boring, a few changes, nothing major. No big price movements followed this report.  Corn ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.827 billion bushels. Corn for ethanol was increased 75 million bushels but feed demand was lowered 25 million bushels.  Ending stocks for corn were less than traders had expected. That [...]

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Arend Farms 7

Take time to analyze your farm as a business

  For those who have never seen the Chicago Board of Trade trading floor, your time is limited. On July 2, 2015 all futures pits in Chicago will be closed, due to a lack of use and it will save stock holders $10 million per year. Computers and electronic trading have replaced humans for 99% [...]

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Preblecornfield

Margins continuing to tighten in 2015

Spring is just around the corner. It is hard to believe that in 70 days or so, spring planting of corn and soybeans could be underway across Ohio and the Midwest. Many producers have already made decisions regarding the mix of corn and soybeans to be planted this spring. Margins and profits per acre are [...]

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blackbear

Prepare to battle the bear

Corn highlights Last week corn dipped below the 100-day moving average, which usually indicates the market will move lower going forward. However, farmers aren’t selling, so many are unsure what to expect. Corn exports are difficult due to lower priced corn coming from the Ukraine. Warm weather in the South last week was hurting feed demand, especially in [...]

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winter barn

Selling forward with a production budget in mind

Where will corn and bean prices go? Corn has a big technical resistance at $3.77 (100-day moving average). So far, the market has held this price as a floor. Some still estimate $4.25 as an upside target. Fundamentally, farmers haven’t been sellers much below $4, so with the board around $3.85 some end users can’t source corn without increasing basis. This could [...]

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It’s taking $4 cash to open bin doors

Jon Scheve, a grain merchandise with Superior Feed Ingredients, says that ethanol plants are having to raise corn basis to get farmers to load up a truck for delivery. He says some farmers are holding on for dear life until they see prices around the $4 cash mark or higher. Hear more of his comments [...]

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$3 corn2

January report offered news for bulls and bears

Maybe the most anticipated USDA report of the year was published last week. The biggest take away in the report was carryout bushels. Carryout is the amount of unused grain from one production year to the next, which helps traders to determine if the market is trading at the correct price. The bullish news was that corn yields and carryout were reduced, [...]

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Will glut of supply mean $9 soybeans (or less)?

After USDA’s January supply and demand report, the soybean markets felt a lot of downward pressure and flirted with resistance levels at the end of the week. Jon Scheve, a grain merchandiser with Superior Feed Ingredients says that downward trend may continue and really put the pressure on the bean markets at harvest time. He [...]

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