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Market Analysis

Market action for 2016


With the end of 2015, markets continue to trade in a very narrow range.  Unfortunately, the holiday rally many hoped for didn’t happen. Soybeans While the weather hasn’t been perfect in South America, rains have been timely. If this continues $8 futures could result, though $9 may be tested if …

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Unprofitable grain prices continue

Grain prices continue to be low, stressful, and unprofitable for Ohio and U.S. producers. While March CBOT corn last summer on July 13 had reached $4.62, it has spent little time above the $4 since October. It then fell to $3.64 mid-November. Corn basis levels continue to be historic and …

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Storage and casinos

Last week the Argentina government allowed the peso to float versus the dollar and other world currency, causing the value to fall nearly 40%. This meant Argentinian farmers saw their stored beans increase substantially in value overnight. Eventually these farmers should be big sellers, as they are sitting on a …

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Selling when a rally is unlikely

This week several unknowns caused market volatility. Concern over the biofuel mandate and potential legal challenges regarding blender credits caused bean prices to drop. Uncertainty over Argentina’s agricultural policy now with the new government in power. Will export taxes be completely lifted on corn and wheat in Argentina? How fast …

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Use strategy to capture market opportunity

Fundamentally, this market doesn’t have a lot of upside unless South America turns dry. It appears some farmers are taking advantage of these rallies to catch up on sales, but many farmers are still uncertain. This is why a marketing plan is so helpful. It can help take the uncertainty out …

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Little excitement in today’s USDA numbers

Conclusion, boring report. Santa, back to work. Today’s report was vanilla and boring. No big changes that sparked huge price movement in either direction. Shortly before the report corn was up 3 cents, soybeans up 1 cent, with wheat up 8 cents. At 12:15 corn was unchanged, soybeans were down …

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Will $4 corn be a reality?

Now that harvest is completed, the winter landscape begins to exert its influence. Work turns to what can be accomplished inside. Producers’ attentions are quickly turning to the 2016 growing season. Corn and soybean prices have fallen drastically compared to those seen several years ago. Many decisions will need to …

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How to avoid giving away your storage

The recent market collapse was largely caused by higher than expected corn and soybean yields and carryouts. In the end, increased production in the western Corn Belt made up for lower yields in the east due to the wet spring. Also, world carryout increased because the USDA is estimating that …

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USDA gives bears plenty to talk about

Today’s report was bearish for corn, soybeans, and wheat. All three had an ending stocks increase that were greater than expected. Corn production was estimated at 13.654 billion bushels, up 99 million bushels from last month. The yield was set at 169.3 bushels per acre, up from last month at …

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