Market Analysis

Summer corn and soybean highs may be set

Crop prospects are improving slightly for many since early June, while the amount of exports are not, as U.S. corn and soybean export projections continue to be under pressure. The U.S. is facing stiffer competition from other exporting countries, especially Brazil and Argentina. USDA is currently projecting new crop exports of corn at 1.875 billion [...]

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Had to get up close to see this field of soybeans in Grover Hill, Ohio.

Soybean marketing action

Old crop soybeans remain inverted (meaning they are valued higher in the nearby futures compared to future futures months). Translation — the markets want soybeans now, not later. Additionally, as futures drop, basis levels have been increasing (likely driven by domestic soybean meal demand).  Some think this was caused by the USDA over-estimating last year’s [...]

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corn harvest from above

Overcoming the fear of margin calls

It’s pollination week in much of the Corn Belt. In general, the weather is supportive with warm weather and adequate moisture levels. Now the focus turns to estimating the yields across the Midwest. Interestingly Kansas and South Dakota planted the same amount of acres to corn as Indiana and Ohio according to USDA forecasts. Usually Kansas and [...]

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Darke County flooding after 5.1 inches of rain. Photo by Scott Labig.

Fast moving prices with big swings likely in coming weeks

A phone call last month was a first for me as to its ending. As I was talking with a customer mid-morning, I heard these words at a little faster pace, “Doug, I have to go. I see a groundhog I have been trying to get for months.” I think the next sound I heard [...]

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Photo by Erin Cole at Trupointe Cooperative.

Futures offer marketing flexibility

Reasons to be bullish corn: • Technical picture for corn futures is bullish • Indiana and Ohio are clearly having production issues • Illinois growing conditions continue to fade • USDA has dropped planted acres and harvested acres • Trade believes the final yield is closer to 162 than the USDA’s 166 • 2015/16 corn [...]

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money dollars

Set a marketing game plan

Corn USDA surprised Chicago analysts last week by reducing 2015 corn acres estimates — 200K planted but 500K harvested. This could reduce 2015 bushels by 80 to100 million, and ultimately support prices. Still questions remain: • Will harvested acres stay low? • Will USDA revise estimates in the future? • Will excessive rainfall cause a [...]

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Costs and returns from holding grain

Where can corn and bean prices go from here?  Corn looks to be in a range of $3 to $4.40. The soybean range could be $8 to $10. Following are some of the market movers that could take prices higher or lower.   Reasons to be bullish corn: • Too much rain — nitrogen losses [...]

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Dollar drivers

A number of recent trading sessions have been marked by a frustrating pattern. Overnight, grains will start a brave little rally based on fundamental production worries like rained-out planting or flooded, sprouting wheat. At 7:00 a.m., they’ll be gaining a few cents to counteract the brutish losses of previous days, and then — wham! Something [...]

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Hedging to maximize farm profitability with tight margins

Soybeans Due to heavy rain, 6 million soybean acres in Kansas and Missouri are not yet planted. How many acres might end up in prevent plant? Two million acres, or about 100 million bushels, while significant would probably not have that large of an effect on the market. Even if none of these acres are planted, the [...]

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soybeans emerging

Soybean basis selling strategy

There was a small rally for the week in corn and beans.  While nice to see, it was probably caused mostly by a drop in the value of the dollar. Speculators bought grain to cover their short positions and pocketed a little profit. A few small bad weather pockets (i.e. frost in Manitoba, heavy Midwest [...]

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