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Market Analysis



USDA gives bears plenty to talk about

Today’s report was bearish for corn, soybeans, and wheat. All three had an ending stocks increase that were greater than expected. Corn production was estimated at 13.654 billion bushels, up 99 million bushels from last month. The yield was set at 169.3 bushels per acre, up from last month at …

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Solid basis continues through harvest

Weather was nearly perfect for harvest the entire fall season for much of Ohio. Some parts of Ohio — particularly in the northwest — had six weeks without rain, a far contrast to the spring when it rained week after week. It was a bittersweet reminder of how fickle the …

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Buying calls is gambling

  Markets remained range-bound last week. There was some discussion the Chinese, who control much of the world’s corn carry out, may grind some for ethanol. Generally China has avoided the food versus fuel debate, but some of their corn is from 2010 and is declining in quality. If China would …

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Are corn yields on their way up?

The October USDA supply and demand report often has the potential to be a game changer. Game changers can also be called surprises, which in turn create violent price moves. With that report USDA has the ability to gather actual harvest data to give a much more representative report for …

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Get to know your marketing tools

We finished harvesting on our farm in southeast Nebraska last Wednesday. Yields were average for irrigated corn and soybeans, which was expected. However, we were pleased that dryland corn matched last year’s record production and dryland soybeans were 20% higher than the last 10-year average. Reports indicate these results (i.e. …

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Selling calls can set up success

The Fed didn’t change interest rates last week, which helps farmers in the short-term. The dollar won’t increase in value, making it easier to export grain. Also borrowing money for operation costs won’t likely increase. The corn market is under pressure, likely from the start of harvest. Yield results are …

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Are price swings ahead?

The trade was surprised by the USDA reducing corn yield estimates, but at the same time raising bean yield estimates. What does this mean? Corn Carryout for the 2015/16 crop was reduced to under 1.6 billion bushels. Many think this is bullish and corn won’t trade below $3.50. The top end …

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