Market Analysis

The market feels like it is in free-fall and the lack of strong exports is discouraging. One silver-lining, as futures continue to drop, export demand may eventually increase. World grain supplies are still high, which could keep a cap on prices for a long time. It will likely take a …

The stock market is jittery and commodities seem weak. China’s economic problems continue to plague the world. World markets are trying to determine if China’s economic issues are a short-term blip or a long-term problem. Lack of strong export numbers is also raising concerns with traders. One small positive — there were …

Pro Farmer estimates are showing a 164.3 corn national average, while the USDA was 168.8.  This wasn’t a big surprise to the trade. Many feel that the final number will be somewhere in-between. We will know in almost 30 days as harvest should be nearly to I-80.  This week harvest was as far north …

The experts weren’t expecting the USDA to raise yield estimates.  Many don’t believe the numbers, but everyone is now trading off of these new projections.  Farmers probably won’t be selling at these prices.   In the past when farmers waited futures eventually creep back up to $4 corn and $10 soybeans.  …

Bearish. That one word wraps up today’s numbers for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Not only were the yield estimates for both corn and soybeans higher than July, they are much higher. The trade had expected production, yield, and ending stocks to be declining for corn and soybeans. They did not. …

Crop prospects are improving slightly for many since early June, while the amount of exports are not, as U.S. corn and soybean export projections continue to be under pressure. The U.S. is facing stiffer competition from other exporting countries, especially Brazil and Argentina. USDA is currently projecting new crop exports …

Old crop soybeans remain inverted (meaning they are valued higher in the nearby futures compared to future futures months). Translation — the markets want soybeans now, not later. Additionally, as futures drop, basis levels have been increasing (likely driven by domestic soybean meal demand).  Some think this was caused by …

It’s pollination week in much of the Corn Belt. In general, the weather is supportive with warm weather and adequate moisture levels. Now the focus turns to estimating the yields across the Midwest. Interestingly Kansas and South Dakota planted the same amount of acres to corn as Indiana and Ohio according to …

A phone call last month was a first for me as to its ending. As I was talking with a customer mid-morning, I heard these words at a little faster pace, “Doug, I have to go. I see a groundhog I have been trying to get for months.” I think …

Reasons to be bullish corn: • Technical picture for corn futures is bullish • Indiana and Ohio are clearly having production issues • Illinois growing conditions continue to fade • USDA has dropped planted acres and harvested acres • Trade believes the final yield is closer to 162 than the …