Market Analysis

wheat head

Report is bullish soybean, and wheat; somewhat negative corn

USDA estimates of U.S. corn acres were 90.9 million acres, soybean acres were 89.5 million acres, and wheat acres were 45.7 million acres.  June 1 corn stocks were 5.225 billion bushels, soybean stocks were 963 million bushels, and wheat stocks were 1.184 billion bushels. Soybeans were higher due to less than expected stocks, wheat was higher [...]

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100_5259_-_horizontal_corn_pile_-_under_200

Managing a sideways market with downside protection

Weather is driving the market right now. As forecasts adjust twice a day, the market can shift direction abruptly. At this point it’s really difficult for the market to fully estimate the actual amount of stress the corn crop has sustained so far and its impact on overall future yields. Contributing to the uncertainty is [...]

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sidedressing

Determining your breakeven

Corn Corn showed signs of life with hot and dry weather forecasted throughout the Midwest the next two weeks. Realistically prolonged dry weather is necessary for a significant rally since subsoil moisture has been plentiful. Trend line yields are definitely still possible. Two good rains (one after Father’s Day and another after the 4th) is really all [...]

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Vonstein

Bullish or bearish as planting season wraps up?

Last week the USDA published the first crop conditions report for 2017. This report is really irrelevant because historically it has very little correlation to final yields. No crop is made or lost in May. Weather will now be driving the market with the most important dates being 6/15 to 7/15. As a rule, hot [...]

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Is a wakeboarding farmer an reliable market signal?

Being objective about the markets (in a wet planting season)

With the constant rain in Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, southern Illinois and western Ohio, farmers are getting worried they won’t get corn planted. Some are surprised the market hasn’t responded with a rally. Prices likely haven’t increased for the following reasons. As a percent of the total U.S. production, these areas collectively don’t produce a lot [...]

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Don’t give away your risk premiums with specialty crops

Last week many speculated as many as 2 million wheat acres were damaged after cold weather struck much of the Midwest. While this caused a nice wheat futures rally Monday, it was short-lived because this represents only about 100 million bushels, or 10% of forecasted total wheat carryout. This is likely not a big enough [...]

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money dollars

Identifying good brokers

Planting Progress On our farm in SE Nebraska corn planting is complete and beans are underway. The balance of the central corn states are making progress on corn plantings and are likely on pace with the five-year average. While north of I-90 weather is limiting planting. This is still within normal range, but if cold [...]

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planter

Making money when the market isn’t moving

Corn Corn futures decreased 14 cents last week. There could be a 60-cent weather premium already built into Dec corn futures. Trend-line yields would likely push prices back to $3.25 at harvest. Weather is key variable for the next few months. It’s still too early to worry about not getting the crop planted. With the [...]

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Markets watching as planting season gets rolling

Weather will once again dominate grain markets for the next three months. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is not currently seeing an active El Niño or La Niña. It is extremely important to monitor for that activity. The Center does see increasing odds for an El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere by late summer or [...]

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flooded corn

A look at factors that have a big impact on farm profits

Beans The Tuesday USDA report surprised many with an increase in world bean stocks, making levels the highest in history. With stocks to use rations also very high (third highest ever), conditions are not bullish and significant rallies are very unlikely. To put this into perspective, current U.S. stock levels are more than double levels [...]

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