Market Analysis

bins

Why store beans?

While the USDA report was bearish, the market closed like it didn’t matter. Corn lost 3 cents and beans gained 7 cents on the week. Typically corn prices don’t increase after the September report through the end of September, but we’ll see. Corn Early reports from the field suggest yields are questionable and variable. We [...]

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Market volatility and my final 2016 corn positions

Market volatility has been reduced this past year for corn. This year’s low (so far) is nearly 30 cents higher than last year’s low while this year’s high was about 30 cents lower than last year. This kind of trend can be typical of abundant supply. Another sign of abundant supply is that spreads between [...]

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corn harvest from above

Which crop should you store?

Almost like clockwork this previous week, unpriced farmers sold most of their remaining grain stored at elevators that was still on DP. By some estimates the amount of corn sold could have been nearly 10% of the ’16 production. Unfortunately, this price slide in late August has become a common trend the past several years. [...]

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Sometimes it’s wise to bet against a rally

Recent crop tours have not provided enough support that USDA estimates are completely off base. This caused even more pressure on the market this week. Crop size will be debated until harvest is over and without a major surprise, the upside seems limited. For many elevators and end users 8/31 is the last official day [...]

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Basis, market carry and futures

The weather in Minneapolis this week continues to be cool and wet. Maple trees are already starting to show fall colors, not unusual for this time of year, but certainly a sign that harvest is approaching. The USDA report showed yields higher than trader expectations, but there are still two weeks of weather that can [...]

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combine

The combine seat as a marketing strategy

The 8/10 USDA report caught many off guard last week. Even I thought the USDA would trim back corn yield estimates more than they did. As always happens after these reports, the bulls and bears debated the accuracy of these reports. Bulls say the vegetative health maps indicate widespread problems, while bears point out that [...]

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Warren Co. corn

Crops looking average with pockets of damage

It appears the market is just waiting for the updated USDA corn yield estimate on 8/10/17. Once published, the market will debate why it’s incorrect. Generally the market is trading corn based upon a national yield assumption of around 165-166. With a surprise below 165, $4 corn is a possibility again. An estimate above 166, [...]

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Profiting in a sideways market

The latest crop condition estimates are the lowest since 2013 (corn down 2% and beans down 4%). Also, time is running out for the western half of Iowa to get enough rain to produce average corn yields. Forecasts shift every six hours, which contributes to farmer and market uncertainties. This week it rained in the [...]

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A beautiful sunset over a Darke County waterway, emphasis on the water. Photo by Greg McGlinch.

Grand slams vs. strike outs in marketing

There is no doubt it will be hot for the next few weeks, it’s mid-July after all. However, it’s the extent of dryness that is uncertain. Every day weather models show varying possibilities, which causes market fluctuations. Iowa, for example, is living on subsoil moisture reserves for now. This may be depleted if it doesn’t [...]

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Scheve July3

Selling hope to profit the farm

The market was surprised last week when the USDA increased corn acre planting estimates by 1 million. The USDA also indicated that stocks may be higher than the market was anticipating. These adjustments could really hurt the chances of a major corn rally for the rest of the year. At this point, it will take [...]

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