Market Analysis

DSC_4269

Weather to dominate markets

Weather features will dominate U.S. grain markets for at least the next 60 days. Those weather features will be in both North America and South America. As the U.S. began the winter weather season last month, several items stood out. First, the Plains and the hard red winter wheat grown in that area went into [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
soybeans in fall

Protect soybean profits for 2017

It was another week of relatively boring, range-bound markets. With the holidays approaching it seems like the trend will continue. Since harvest I’ve been presenting Grain Marketing Workshops to farmers throughout the Midwest. During these meetings, I’ve had the chance to talk to many farmers about future plans. Many farmers have indicated they will plant [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
$3 corn2

Double call strategy sale

Brazil’s weather has been good recently, some are expecting a record crop.  If this happens, the U.S. export program may slow when the Brazil bean harvest starts in 45 days which could lead to a ceiling on prices. Several weeks ago I mentioned that Nov ’17 bean prices compared to Dec ’17 corn prices are [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
money2

Option spread protection trade

There was little news during the holiday week. Highlights: South American weather conditions remain good, but dry weather could still have an impact EPA increased renewable fuels, should cause increased demand for soybeans and corn Goldman Sachs issued their first commodity buy order in over four years, which may help grain prices long-term Corn remains [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
soybean sunrise

Market history shows there is no certainty in the future

As they say in the North, “winter is coming.” Last weekend I mowed the yard at 60 degrees. Today it is 32 degrees and snow is on the ground. Harvest is mostly done. At this point the market will have to rally to get farmers selling, because bins are closed and locked tight. Seasonally the [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
Heitkamp Farms Feeding Farmers Corn Harvest Combine

Collecting on the carry

Beans On a positive note, beans rallied early last week due to palm oil prices increasing to highs not seen in several years. This increased demand for soy oil as a substitute in some Asian markets. On the flip side, the USDA report published last week was bearish. National yield averages were a bushel higher [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
soybeans in fall

Report bearish for corn and soybeans

The report was bearish for corn and soybeans with production and ending stocks higher than expected. Before the report corn was down 3 cents, soybeans up 2 cents, and wheat was unchanged. At 12:20 pm corn was down 11 cents, soybeans down 20 cents, while wheat was down 8 cents. Overall traders were expecting corn [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
corn harvest 16

Soybean prices not falling out of bed

This past year the U.S. had 94.5 million acres of corn. U.S. soybeans reached 83.7 million acres. This compares to 2015 when the U.S. corn was 88 million acres while soybeans were 82.7 million acres. As we look ahead to 2017, early ideas suggest soybean acres will increase at the expense of corn acres, which [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
grain bin corn

Do not give your storage away

Soybeans Beans surprised everyone last week by rallying over $10. If exports remain strong, bean prices may stay at these levels. However, Gulf basis levels (export values) are at 10-year lows, these low basis levels often are an indicator that futures prices are too high longer term. Eyes are on South American weather as the [...]

Print Friendly
Read More
bins

Should I sell beans for cash now or sell for July delivery?

Farmers have been more concerned with harvesting than selling lately, which contributed to last week’s rally. However, I don’t think many farmers took advantage. I don’t know if the rally will continue as farmers finish harvest this week (we finished safely last Wednesday). Many may sell immediately after harvest to ease cash-flow concerns and limit [...]

Print Friendly
Read More