Market Analysis

Heitkamp Farms Feeding Farmers Corn Harvest Combine

Collecting on the carry

Beans On a positive note, beans rallied early last week due to palm oil prices increasing to highs not seen in several years. This increased demand for soy oil as a substitute in some Asian markets. On the flip side, the USDA report published last week was bearish. National yield averages were a bushel higher [...]

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soybeans in fall

Report bearish for corn and soybeans

The report was bearish for corn and soybeans with production and ending stocks higher than expected. Before the report corn was down 3 cents, soybeans up 2 cents, and wheat was unchanged. At 12:20 pm corn was down 11 cents, soybeans down 20 cents, while wheat was down 8 cents. Overall traders were expecting corn [...]

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corn harvest 16

Soybean prices not falling out of bed

This past year the U.S. had 94.5 million acres of corn. U.S. soybeans reached 83.7 million acres. This compares to 2015 when the U.S. corn was 88 million acres while soybeans were 82.7 million acres. As we look ahead to 2017, early ideas suggest soybean acres will increase at the expense of corn acres, which [...]

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grain bin corn

Do not give your storage away

Soybeans Beans surprised everyone last week by rallying over $10. If exports remain strong, bean prices may stay at these levels. However, Gulf basis levels (export values) are at 10-year lows, these low basis levels often are an indicator that futures prices are too high longer term. Eyes are on South American weather as the [...]

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bins

Should I sell beans for cash now or sell for July delivery?

Farmers have been more concerned with harvesting than selling lately, which contributed to last week’s rally. However, I don’t think many farmers took advantage. I don’t know if the rally will continue as farmers finish harvest this week (we finished safely last Wednesday). Many may sell immediately after harvest to ease cash-flow concerns and limit [...]

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tools

What tools are in your marketing tool box?

  Corn Yield estimates on last week’s USDA report were as expected, while harvested acres increased slightly. With this report the likely trading range could be $3.20 to $3.60 through Dec 2016. There was a surge in prices late this week, but I don’t expect it to continue. As prices increased, basis levels began slipping [...]

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corn harvest 16

Soybeans bullish to neutral, corn neutral

Prior to the report corn was at $3.47 up 1.5 cents. Soybeans were $9.53 down one cent. At 12:20 pm corn was down 3 cents, soybeans up 6 cents, and wheat was up 2 cents.  The corn yield was estimated at 173.4 bushels per acre, right in line with trade expectations.  Corn production was 15.057 billion [...]

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soybeans in fall

A look at market carry and spreads

Early last week the market was positive, but it turned negative at the end. Right now corn seems range bound from $3.30 to $3.50. Slow harvest progress has helped keep prices from testing the lows. This week however looks to be a wide open window for harvest to move forward for the entire Corn Belt. [...]

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harvest16

When will we see the harvest lows?

Corn and soybean harvest is in progress for Ohio and the Midwest. September’s many dry days along with temperatures in the 80s and above greatly aided corn harvest for producers. Those warm, dry days reduced corn moisture significantly after Sept. 15. Numerous reports indicated it had dropped five points or more in just one week. [...]

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money2

Trade on likelihood not hope

Have we hit the market low? Many wonder if the market low has passed because markets frequently rally going into October. I’m not sure for several reasons. There are hints that China may start exporting some corn for the first time in 10 years. Harvest is starting slower than usual. Friday I drove from Lincoln, [...]

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