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Market Analysis



Farmers need to use their marketing edge

Corn and soybean yields continue to exceed farmers’ expectations across the Midwest, suggesting USDA estimates may have been closer than many had thought. Prices continue to do nothing. Spreads between futures contracts have widened to levels unseen in several years for corn and even longer for beans. This and basis also …

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Corn neutral, friendly soybeans, bearish wheat

USDA lowered last year’s soybean production more than expected. Last year’s soybean production was revised to 4.296 billion bushels. Earlier USDA had it at 4.305 billion bushels. Corn and soybean stocks were lower than expected. Wheat stocks were higher than expected. Winter wheat production for 2017-18 was estimated at 1.269 …

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Why store beans?

While the USDA report was bearish, the market closed like it didn’t matter. Corn lost 3 cents and beans gained 7 cents on the week. Typically corn prices don’t increase after the September report through the end of September, but we’ll see. Corn Early reports from the field suggest yields …

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Which crop should you store?

Almost like clockwork this previous week, unpriced farmers sold most of their remaining grain stored at elevators that was still on DP. By some estimates the amount of corn sold could have been nearly 10% of the ’16 production. Unfortunately, this price slide in late August has become a common …

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Sometimes it’s wise to bet against a rally

Recent crop tours have not provided enough support that USDA estimates are completely off base. This caused even more pressure on the market this week. Crop size will be debated until harvest is over and without a major surprise, the upside seems limited. For many elevators and end users 8/31 …

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Basis, market carry and futures

The weather in Minneapolis this week continues to be cool and wet. Maple trees are already starting to show fall colors, not unusual for this time of year, but certainly a sign that harvest is approaching. The USDA report showed yields higher than trader expectations, but there are still two …

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The combine seat as a marketing strategy

The 8/10 USDA report caught many off guard last week. Even I thought the USDA would trim back corn yield estimates more than they did. As always happens after these reports, the bulls and bears debated the accuracy of these reports. Bulls say the vegetative health maps indicate widespread problems, …

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Crops looking average with pockets of damage

It appears the market is just waiting for the updated USDA corn yield estimate on 8/10/17. Once published, the market will debate why it’s incorrect. Generally the market is trading corn based upon a national yield assumption of around 165-166. With a surprise below 165, $4 corn is a possibility …

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