USDA Reports Flash

By Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA boosted corn acres above pre-report expectations to 94.15 million acres, up 7% from last year. Soybean acres also rose to 83.69 million acres, up 1% from last year.

Quarterly grain stock estimates also blew past pre-report estimates, with USDA pegging corn stocks at 4.722 billion bushels as of June 1, up 6% from last year. Soybean stocks were estimated at 870 million bushels, up 39% from last year.

Wheat acreage also came in higher than expected, at 50.82 million acres. USDA pegged grain sorghum acres at 7.23 million acres.

USDA’s acreage estimates should be viewed as bearish for new-crop corn, neutral for new-crop soybeans and bearish for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. USDA’s grain stocks estimates were bearish for corn and soybeans, but neutral for wheat, he said.

For DTN’s exclusive audio comments, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

CORN

If realized, USDA’s estimate of 94.15 million corn acres will be the third highest planted acreage since 1944. USDA estimated that record-high corn plantings occurred in Oregon and Idaho, and corn acreage was up or unchanged across most of the Corn Belt.

Of the total 4.722 billion bushels of corn stocks, 2.47 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 9% from last year, and 2.25 billion bushels were stored off-farm, up 3% from last year.

The March-to-May indicated disappearance of corn stocks is 3.1 billion bushels, down from 3.3 billion bushels during the same period last year.

SOYBEANS

The estimated 83.7 million acres of planted soybeans would set a record for the country. USDA expects record planted soybean acreage in Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Specifically, increases of 200,000 acres or more are expected in Kansas, Minnesota and Missouri.

Of the 870 million bushels of soybean stocks, 281 million are stored on-farm, up 14% from last year, and 589 million are stored off-farm, a whopping 55% increase from last year.

The March-to-May indicated disappearance of soybean stocks is 661 million bushels, down 5% from the same time period last year.

WHEAT

Of the 50.82 million wheat acres, winter wheat accounted for 36.54 million acres, down 7% from last year. Planted durum acreage is estimated at 2.15 million acres, up 11% from last year, and spring wheat acreage was pegged at 12.13 million acres, down 8% from 2015.

Old-crop wheat stocks totaled 981 million bushels, up 30% from last year. On-farm stocks were pegged at 197 million bushels, up 27% from 2015, and off-farm stocks were estimated at 784 million bushels, up 31% from last year.

SORGHUM

Sorghum’s projected acreage of 7.23 million represents a 15% decline from 2015. Record-low plantings of the grain crop are expected in Arkansas.

Sorghum stocks were pegged at 88.3 million bushels, an enormous rise of 157% from 2015. On-farm stocks are up 228% from 2015 to 9.7 million bushels. Off-farm stocks also rose 151% from last year to 78.6 million bushels.

ANALYSIS

In its Grain Stocks report, USDA said that corn stocks in all positions on June 1 totaled 4.72 billion bushels, more than expected. Soybean stocks on June 1 totaled 870 million bushels, a little more than expected. USDA said that wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 981 million bushels, roughly as expected. "USDA’s grain stocks estimates were bearish for corn and soybeans, but neutral for wheat," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

In its Acreage report, USDA estimated that 94.15 million acres of corn will be planted in 2016, more than the pre-report estimate of 92.76 million acres and up 7% from a year ago, Hultman said. Planted soybean acres were estimated at 83.69 million, slightly below the pre-report estimate of 83.97 million acres and up 1% from a year ago. USDA estimated planted wheat acres at 50.8 million, more than expected while spring wheat acres were pegged at 11.84 million acres, a little more than expected. "USDA’s acreage estimates are bearish for new-crop corn, neutral for new-crop soybeans and bearish for wheat," Hultman said.

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Editor’s note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT on Thursday for a discussion of USDA’s Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Sign up now at: https://goo.gl/…

QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels)
6/1/16 Average High Low 3/1/16 6/1/15
Corn 4.722 4.528 4.625 4.437 7.808 4.453
Soybeans 0.870 0.833 0.862 0.784 1.531 0.627
Wheat 0.981 0.982 1.000 0.784 1.372 0.752
Grain Sorghum 0.088 0.120 0.135 0.105 0.201 0.034
ACREAGE (million acres) USDA USDA
6/30/16 Average High Low 3/31/16 Final 2015
Corn 94.15 92.76 94.00 92.00 93.60 88.00
Soybeans 83.69 83.66 85.70 82.60 82.24 82.65
All Wheat 50.82 49.73 50.20 49.10 49.56 54.64
All Winter Wheat 36.54 36.29 36.50 36.20 36.22 39.46
Spring 12.13 11.64 13.40 11.00 11.35 13.25
Durum 2.15 1.99 2.20 1.80 2.00 1.94
Grain Sorghum 7.23 7.15 7.45 6.90 7.22 8.46

(AG)