USDA Reports Summary
By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor
WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA gave corn demand a 100 million bushel boost by increasing ethanol production and exports by 50 mb each. USDA also noted that a record Canadian corn crop will increase U.S. corn imports by 5 mb, resulting in a 95 mb reduction to U.S. ending stocks.
That puts the domestic ending stocks figure toward the low end of pre-report estimates at 1.79 billion bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio also declined from 14.6% last month to 13.7%.
USDA incorporated the latest Statistics Canada data into its world estimates, leading to a 5 million metric ton increase in global wheat production and a 4.3 mmt increase in global wheat ending stocks. USDA also boosted Australia’s production by 1 mmt. The ending stocks figure, at 182.8 mmt, came in above the range of pre-report estimates.
"Overall, Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was less bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.
U.S. ENDING STOCKS
USDA made the most changes to its supply and demand table for corn with the increase in ethanol production and exports. In the text of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA said the ethanol adjustment reflected the "strong pace of weekly ethanol production since mid-October."
USDA said the export increase reflected the pace of sales and increased global consumption.
Soybean ending stocks shrank 20 mb to 150 mb, USDA said. USDA increased soybean imports 10 mb from its previous estimate while increasing exports by 25 mb and crushings by 5 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio declined from 5.2% last month to 4.6%.
On wheat, USDA increased its forecast for imports by 10 mb, which will most likely come from Canada. That increased the ending stocks projection by 10 mb to 575 mb.
GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS
The largest global stocks changes were made to the wheat market as USDA incorporated larger Canadian and Australian production.
USDA increased global soybean production by 1.4 mmt, largely on a 1 mmt increase to Argentina’s production and a slight increase to Canadian production. USDA left Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 88 mmt, and the new estimate for Argentina is 54.5 mmt.
The global soybean ending stocks estimate came in at 70.6 mmt, towards the low end of pre-report expectations.
On corn, global ending stocks declined to 162.5 mmt from 164.3 mmt last month, just below the range of pre-report expectations. USDA increased its global feed production estimate by 1.6 mmt and exports by 1.44 mmt.
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2013-2014|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)|
|WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)|
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