Markets soar after lower production report from USDA

The soybean yield forecast is down, but still would set a new production record.

The markets are soaring limit up in response to the USDA crop production report.

Though the U.S. soybean production forecast is at a record-high level, according to the Crop Production report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the yield is down 1% from the September estimate. Soybean yield is expected to average 44.4 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from 2009. If realized this will be the highest yield on record. Soybean growers are expected to harvest a record-high 76.8 million acres, but up 0.6 percent from last year’s acreage. 



Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in all major-producing States except Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin. The largest decreases in yield from last month are expected in North Carolina and Virginia, down 5 and 4 bushels, respectively.

U. S. corn production was also down with a yield forecast at 12.7 billion bushels, down 4% from the September forecast and down 3% from last year’s record production of 13.1 billion bushels. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 155.8 bushels per acre, down 6.7 bushels from the previous month and 8.9 bushels below last year’s record of 164.7 bushels. Forecasted yields decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt and Tennessee Valley. Illinois showed the largest decline, down 14 bushels per acre. Indiana and Iowa are both down 10 bushels from the previous month, while Missouri and Nebraska declined 9 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.3 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative

data.

Ohio’s average corn yield is forecast at 167 bushels per acre, down 6 bushels from the previous month’s forecast. Total grain production is forecast at 547.76 million bushels, up slightly from last year’s State production total. Corn growers expect to harvest 3.28 million acres in 2010, up 140,000 acres from one year ago. Based on administrative data, planted acreage is estimated at 3.50 million acres, down 100,000 acres from the June estimate.

The 2010 average soybean yield for Ohio is forecast at 48 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month’s forecast, but 1 bushel below the 2009 average State yield. Total State production is forecast at 224.64 million bushels, up 1% from 2009. Harvested acreage is forecast at 4.68 million acres, up 150,000 acres from last year. Based on administrative data, planted acreage is estimated at 4.7 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate.

Alfalfa production in 2010 is forecast at 1.22 million tons, down 5 percent from last year. All other hay production is forecast at 1.54 million tons, down 3 percent from last year.

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