Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — October 10, 2017

Ryan Martin 10-10-17

Not a lot of change in the overall forecast pattern this morning, but we do have a few tweaks to our forecast…mostly finessing the timing of our next two rain events. Today we should start with decent sun, but clouds will building this afternoon as our next system pushes across the western and central Corn Belt. Rains will actually begin in Indiana sooner today, and that means we need to be on the lookout sooner here too.

Rains will start this evening and overnight over the state and will fill in nicely through tomorrow as well. We are leaving rain totals alone this morning for the entire event. That means we are looking at rain totals of .25”-1” over about 70% of the state. We are pulling back on the coverage of this rain event because it looks to try and pull a little farther north and may leave out southern parts of the state from any significant rains. And, while we still look for the best rains to be north, we are going to expand it to the entire northern part of the state, rather than just saying the northeast gets the best rains. Minor changes to be sure, but still, worth making them this morning. Rains will finish off in most areas by sunset tomorrow. The map above shows potential rainfall through tomorrow evening.

We still look for a dry Thursday- Friday-Saturday period over the state, but have some concern this morning about lingering clouds at least Thursday into Friday. WE do not think these clouds deliver any new precipitation, but it may lead to slower drying due to less than full sun. Still, it should not be a bad period, and we do continue to see temps normal to above normal along with increasing winds as we finish the week and start the weekend. This should back up our claim of good drying weather ahead of our next system.

That system is on track for Sunday arrival, but we are limiting rain Sunday to the northern third of the state. This rain and thunderstorm action on Sunday likely fires off along a pseudo-warm front boundary, and will act as such. Rains over the northern third of the state will be from .25”-1”, with coverage at nearly 80% of areas north of US 30. South we see nothing. But, a cool front does sweep through very early Monday morning through Monday midday, and will bring a few hundredths of an inch to .25” to most of the state. That means we see most of our concern about field work delays staying up north, and a large part of southern Ohio will not see a lot of rain this weekend.

Behind that system we are back to dry weather for all of next week. WE have a strong high pressure dome taking control from Monday through Friday. Temps will be near normal, and sunshine should aid drying. However, winds are not going to be as strong as before the Sunday system. Our next front to watch should be remains in our peripheral vision for late the 21st and mostly the 22nd. This front still looks great to our west, and as long as it holds together, will bring us rain potential of at least .25”-.75” over 75% of the state.


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