Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — October 20, 2017

Ryan Martin 10-20-17

The short term forecast is unchanged this morning: Sunny, windy, dry weather holds for today and tomorrow, similar to what we have seen the past few days, and just like we have been talking up all week long. Our next front works in to the state later Sunday and goes through midday Monday…similar to our thoughts over the past couple of days. In general, 8 out of the next 10 days we have a very solid handle on and our forecast is locked in. However, the remaining two days hold the challenge. Those 2 days are Tuesday and Wednesday…the days immediately behind the front we expect to close out our weekend and start next week.

First, the front: as mentioned above, it is still on the way for Sunday. Arrival mostly later afternoon and then going through the overnight into Monday. The front looks slightly stronger this morning, but at this point we feel comfortable with the .25”-1” rain range we have talked about the past few days. Coverage will be most of the state, likely around 90%. This will cause harvest to grind to a halt. The map above shows potential combined rain totals through midnight Monday night.

Models are in significant disagreement over what happens next. Most models take the low associated with this front, and track it south into the Tennessee Valley, even into northern Alabama. However one model (and it happens to be our favorite one), the European, takes the low right over the top of us. That solution brings another wave of heavy rains into the state for Tuesday and they linger into Wednesday. We are talking an additional 1-2 inches potentially. Now, we do not think this is a correct look at the set up, but it does present some challenges, going into a weekend where we are at full bore harvest and will be looking to get back at it as soon as possible. At this time, we feel it is most prudent to keep our forecast the same, looking for a drier Tuesday and Wednesday period, with no new rain. There can be plenty of clouds and decent flow out of the north and northeast on the backside of the system. But, we do not think this turns into a multi-day, heavy rain system. Drying will be slow for those two days, but new precipitation is not likely. We are keeping our forecast in line with our discussions the past few days.

Even with no new rain for Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday, we will still be changing air mass, and the coldest part of the incoming air mass will be here Wednesday. We expect temps to be actually a bit below normal there at midweek before bouncing later in the week. As sunshine returns for the second half of the week, temps will rise again, and we should be mostly normal to above normal for the rest of the 10 day period (this weekend and next week) outside of next Wednesday. We have dry weather all the way into the start of next weekend.

We have a minor front coming in for next Saturday afternoon. Moisture totals look minor at only a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth or two. That front will pass overnight Saturday night into earl Sunday, but we should see sunshine coming in quickly behind the front.

No change to the extended forecast period this morning. A drier pattern holds for most of the 11-16 day forecast window at this time. A minor upper level system may pop up over the western Corn Belt around the first of the month, but our next system likely holds off until closer to the 4th.


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