We are looking for a better weather to start the week. We have a warm front sitting off to the west in IL and WI that will try and move east through the day today. We don’t think this will yield a full out warm front passage all the way over here in Ohio, but it will be a nudge in the right directions. Winds have a hard time doing more than turning west today, and we will not see significant warming, just temps moderating a bit today after the cold weekend. . Sunshine probably plays the biggest role in getting us a little farther away from those cold temps. We have no significant weather action today or tomorrow outside of sunshine.
We had been looking for our next front to move in here for Wednesday. That front is slowing just a bit, and the rains could be drawn out. Most of Wednesday will be dry, but clouds build. Then we see better rain chances overnight Wednesday night and Thursday, but the action is really only hit and miss. The best rain potential comes early Friday morning, when the front finally ends up crossing the state, and giving better rain coverage. At this time, the best way to play this system is to plan for some hit and miss action as early as Wednesday evening. Rain totals will be (combined through Friday midday) at .1”-.7” with coverage at 80% of the state.
We dry down to finish Friday, and Saturday looks good as well with minor high pressure passing quickly through. But, we have a big, nasty weather system coming in shortly after.
We have been talking about a system for the 5th through the 7th for nearly a week now, and it is still headed this way. Action breaks out overnight Saturday night through the day Sunday. It will be hit and miss, and there will be plenty of breaks in the action. A big lull settles in for Monday, and then we get waylaid again for Tuesday. The first wave is minor with a few hundredths to perhaps half an inch Saturday night through Sunday. The Monday night Tuesday event has half to 1.5” rain potential with it, and we could see some thunderstorms if the timing is right. This is a big event, and looks to stretch one more day longer than our initial forecast was talking last week. That is mostly due to a slowing front, and a stretching of the precipitation over a larger geographic area. Still, it will be a significant rain event, and will bring field work potential to a halt. The map above shows 6 day rain totals that encompass the strong system this weekend through midweek next week.
Colder air comes in behind that storm complex, and we retreat back to near normal levels. WE should be dry from the 8th on into the start of the extended period. In the extended forecast window, we are watching a strong storm complex exiting the central and southern plains around the 11th into the 12th. Right now, there appears to be potential for that system to miss us to the south. However we think that the system will track farther north as we get closer to the event, so we are looking at another potential big rain maker for those days here, particularly over the southern third of the state.