Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — November 1, 2017

Ryan Martin 11-1-17

While the past couple of days have been cloudier and colder than we would have liked, the pattern has been pretty stable. Now, we are moving into a much more active and unsettled pattern over the remainder of this week, the weekend and the early start to next week. We cannot keep precipitation out of the forecast any of the next 6 days, but it will not be raining constantly. Temperatures stay cold today, but will bounce nicely to normal and above normal levels tomorrow through Sunday. Next week, it’s back to the cold air again. Variability and volatility is the key to the forecast this morning.

We have an upper level disturbance pushing across southern Indiana this morning and we will see some of that moisture move into our state as well. With cold air in place this morning as the upper low moves in, we have to keep some chances of scattered snow showers in the back of our minds, at least over SW parts of the state. Generally, we are looking mostly for spits and sprinkles today over the state south of US 30, but don’t be surprised if you see a few snowflakes along and south of I-70 closer to the Indiana line this morning. Better rains develop tonight through tomorrow midday with .1”-.5” rain totals over 70% of the state, buoyed by the warmer air starting to take control.

Scattered showers linger in NW parts of the state tomorrow night and may add another few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, but a large part of the state should stay free of new precipitation in that period. The lull continues Friday, as plenty of clouds only give a few sprinkles to .1” of rain over 40% of the state through the day.

Saturday will be another active rain day. WE see rain and even some thunderstorms over the state bringing .2”-.9” with 80% coverage. The thunderstorms will be most active in eastern Ohio late in the day, and perhaps even as we get closer to midnight. That is where the upper end of Saturday’s rain range will be seen. A large part of the state will see rains of half an inch or less.

On Sunday we start with only a few scattered showers and see rains through the day limited to a trace to at most .2” and 60% coverage. However, the strong “main event” frontal passage is on the way for overnight Sunday night and Monday. WE look for the front to start to work in around 1:00-3:00 AM Monday morning and rains can continue through sunset Monday. Rain totals can be .25”-1” for Monday alone with coverage at 90% of the state. So, if you are keeping track at home, that means for the 6 day period from today through the end of next Monday, rain totals can be half to 1.5” over 90% of the state. Again, it does not all come at once…but there is plenty of moisture there, and we do not get a chance to tackle much harvest action at all through this period. The map above is one thought process about rain totals and geographic spread of rain from today through midnight next Monday.

The entire state will then be dry for next Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will drop off substantially behind the front, and we look for temps to be mostly normal to below normal for the balance of the week next week. Moving on into the extended period, we continue to see the only threat of scattered showers coming with a minor upper level disturbance drifting across the great lakes around 13th and perhaps a slightly better organized front for the 15th. Moisture totals from each, at this point, look to be under .3”.


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