Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — November 13, 2017

Ryan Martin 11-13-17

An active pattern settles in over the next 10 days and will allow no more than 2 to 3 days of dry weather in-between weather systems. The map below shows cumulative rain totals from the next 3 systems over the coming 10 days. We outline these below.

We have high pressure off to the west this morning, and are still dealing with some lingering rains in far eastern parts of the state. Those will move out and that high will slowly track into NW Ohio into this afternoon. This high will bring cooler air today, even with sunshine, but on the backside tomorrow, south winds should allow for some minor moderation. However, our thoughts from last week of temps potentially getting above normal are long gone, and a move back to normal will be about all we can do. Either way, sun the next two days will feel better than the dreary close to the weekend, or even the start to the day today in the east.

Our next system arrives Wednesday afternoon and lingers through Wednesday overnight. It will bring some moisture with it, but not a huge amount. We are looking for that front to bring .05”-.3” over about 60% of the state. There can be some lingering light action past sunset Thursday morning in the east. But, this event looks to be losing its punch as it moves east. Our best precipitation develops near sunset Wednesday night over central Ohio.

We should move back to some drier weather to finish Thursday and for the start of Friday. However, we have a much stronger frontal complex on the way to finish the week and start the weekend. Clouds will increase late Friday afternoon and light rains start by midnight Friday night. The rains intensify into Saturday morning and midday, with the potential for thunderstorms, particularly north and west Saturday afternoon. Rains will be the heaviest from mid-morning through sunset Saturday night over the state. All told, we like rains of .25”-.75” over 100% of the state, and we won’t rule out a push toward 1” in spots in far NW Ohio. Winds will become very gusty Saturday afternoon as well, likely averaging 15-30 mph, and those winds hold into Sunday.

Weather condition go drier for Sunday and Monday, although Sunday we may be stuck with some lingering clouds over a large part of the state. Colder air comes in behind that system on the aforementioned strong northwest winds, and your coldest day will be Sunday.

Clouds start to push back into the state next Tuesday ahead of another fast moving low coming up from the southwest. Rains may not start in earnest until midday Tuesday or even Tuesday afternoon, but will continue through the overnight and into Wednesday mid-morning. The rains are expected to total .05”-.5” over about 80% of the state. We do not expect enough drying for field work ahead of this event, and so these rains will just add to the delays as we move toward Thanksgiving. We should be dry for the balance of next Wednesday afternoon.

For the extended period, we look to start it off dry for Thanksgiving Day itself. However the cause for this dryness on Thanksgiving Day will be a strong upper level, Canadian high diving into the eastern part of the US, which means we can see temps below normal with a cold shot for Thanksgiving Day. At this time, we are not going to talk this up as a massive cold shot, but will watch the evolution of the high and its track southeast. On the backside of the high we can see minor threat of precipitation for late on Black Friday (24th) into the 25th. Moisture totals do not look impressive, but we will keep an eye out for a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 60% of the state.


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