Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast, September 17, 2018


The remains of Hurricane Florence are working northward today, and will bring rain to about 60% of Ohio. We expect rain totals to run anywhere from a few hundredths to perhaps 1.25″ or more, depending on where thunderstorms and longer term rain streaks develop. Right now, we think the best chances for thunderstorms will be far south near the Ohio River, ,and then in east central OH into western PA. The upper end of the rain range will be over southern OH and the eastern third. There is a good chance we see nothing but clouds farther west in west central OH, and even a mix of clouds and sun in NW Ohio…so today’s weather spread may be all over the place, thanks to the remains of Florence. Temperatures do remain warmer than normal today, even with the rain. South flow will be key to keeping temps warm. The map at right shows potential for today’s rain.

Drier weather is back for tomorrow, and we should stay dry for Wednesday and Thursday as well. The front we had been watching last week for midweek on Wednesday late afternoon has completely fallen apart down this way, and moisture looks to stay farther north, across WI, northern IL and into MI. But, even though we are taking moisture out at midweek, we are going to have to pay for it later. That payment comes due starting early Friday.

Three waves of moisture will move over the state from Friday through Sunday, one for each day period. The first wave his for Friday, and goes into the evening, then another batch of moisture comes Saturday and a final batch Sunday. Combined, all three systems bring potential for half to 1.5” rains over about 90% of the state. We think a few areas see all three waves, but most areas see at least two of the three hitting over the 3-day period. This will bring a slowdown to harvest field work.

Dry weather is back for next Monday through Wednesday. Temps will be a bit cooler behind the weekend rains but will stay mostly near normal for the period. Then, we kick off the extended 11-16 day window with a strong front for next Thursday and Friday, the 27th and 28th. This front brings half to 1.5” inch rain potential to a full 100% of the state. This front also ushers in much cooler Canadian high pressure out of the west. We expect temps to move to below normal levels to finish out the extended period, while dry weather finishes out the month and kicks off October. For the 29th and 30th, we think it wise to be on the look out for temps bottoming out near 40 degrees, and we won’t rule out a few upper 30s. A map of potential morning lows for the 30th is at right. However, keep in mind that there is plenty of time for that to change, though. Just putting it out there this morning.

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