Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast, September 19, 2018

We have a few tweaks to the forecast this morning. First off, we are dealing with a few renegade showers this morning in north central and northeast Ohio. Generally we are still looking for today to be dry in many areas, but these pop up showers have been a thorn in the side. Tomorrow looks dry and we stay to start Friday. Tomorrow should be the warmest day of the next several. It definitely will not feel like late September by any stretch of the imagination. This will continue to spur low relative humidity levels and excellent dry down in all areas except where we have those pesky showers this morning. Harvest should be able to ramp up in most areas, as long as we don’t run out of crops that are ready!

We still have rain on the way for Friday. A cold front will sweep through the state from NW to southeast. This will take some of the well above normal temps and put them on the back burner. However, we do not see any major cold push right away. Precipitation still looks minor, but one tweak we are going to make will be to raise the upper end of our rain range. WE still think there can be some areas that get no more than a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but for the upper bound of our rain expectations, we are moving totals closer to .4” or even half an inch. This is due to a concern that we may be able to see a few isolated thundershowers or a few cells along the front where there is just a little more convection. Rains may not start over a large part of Ohio until closer to midday or even early afternoon, but then run through sunset. We still should be done by 3-4 AM Saturday morning. Rain coverage will be 70%.

We are taking the weekend back to dry weather now. We should see sun dominate the state, and moisture looks to stay south of the Ohio river now on Sunday. This is another change, or tweak in our forecast this morning. We are not getting rid of the rain, but we are keeping it south for Sunday. Rains there will be part of a very strong storm complex that actually exits the central plains early in the weekend. It eventually does come out across the area.

So, the inevitability of that next system’s arrival brings it up into SW OH and west central OH early Monday morning, before sunrise. From there we see rain spreading over the rest of the state, and then look for multiple waves of energy through the rest of Monday, through Monday night, all day Tuesday and Tuesday night. Finally, all moisture clears out of the state by midday Wednesday. So, we are pulling the rain forward another day in our forecast, but the rain totals stay basically the same. We like rain totals for the event of half to 1.5”. We won’t rule out some 2” potential, but right now we think thunderstorms that trigger those heaviest rains will stay south of the Ohio River and back west into KY, parts of southern IL and MO earlier in the storm’s life-cycle. But…we are not going to get too cute and completely remove thunderstorm potential either. Coverage of the rain to start next week will be pushing 100%. The map at right is a snapshot of potential action at midday on Monday.

We go back to dry weather for the balance of the 10-day window, for Wednesday afternoon on through Friday. However, the biggest noticeable feature will be significantly cooler air. After the well above normal, summer like temps that we have been dealing with recently, the second half of next week will feel sharply colder. Indeed, we expect temps to be somewhat below normal.

In the extended period, we start off with another strong system around the 2nd of October, and it also has half to 1.5” rain potential. But then we swing back and see the rest of the 11-16 day window dry out. Temps stay normal to slightly below through October 6th. Right now we think the potential for the first “light” frost may come around October 3rd…but we will monitor that as we move forward.

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