Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast, September 24, 2018

Tough weekend on weather. Our front from last Friday cleared the state, but instead of seeing moisture stay along and south of the front on Saturday and Sunday, it worked to the north side of the front, bringing rain in over a large chunk of Ohio Saturday and still lingering Sunday. Things like this happen…but its just a bummer to see Mother Nature humble you at harvest season. If you missed the action and our dry forecast worked out for you…great. Apologies to the rest. But, we live to fight another day.

Today we find ourselves in-between two fronts. A cold front to the south still has plenty of moisture with it, and strong low pressure this morning in western TN. This low moves across Western KY and should be into SW Ohio by sunset tonight. To our northwest, a stationary-slash-cold front sits in the Upper Midwest and is working slowly southeast and has some moisture with it. Today will see most of Ohio dominated by the flow from the southern front, and tomorrow, more of an impact from the NW front. Today, the moisture moving from western TN to Ohio will spread moisture up across the southern half to two thirds of the state Tomorrow, as the front from the NW pushes across MI and IN, we see additional rain and thunderstorm action. Showers then hold through most of Wednesday as well. Action finally breaks down and moves away to the east by Wednesday night. We are keeping rain totals at half to 2″ with coverage at 80% of the state. However, in SW OH and in central Ohio, where we see the best threat for thunderstorms, we think we can easily exceed 2.5 inches. The map at right shows combined rain potential now through midday Wednesday. The 3 and 4 inch totals are a little overzealous, in our minds at least, but the spread of moisture on this map is a good representation.

Dry for Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday. Then we have moisture starting to work back into northern Ohio for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday we will not rule out showers down to the US 30 corridor, but see nothing farther south. We think these will be developing along and north of a warm front that lifts into the state for next weekend. Then better rains work in as low pressure finally arrives with the associated cold front to start next week. Rains out of the event will be half to 1.5” with coverage at 70%.

Dry next Tuesday through Thursday. The extended 11-16 day window starts with strong high pressure over the great lakes, and it could keep us dry through the entire extended period. A strong front approaches from the west around the 9th.

Temps still look to move lower here in the short haul. After the rains later today through Wednesday, we should see temps move to normal and below normal levels to finish the week. Then a slight bump in temps for the weekend as the warm front lifts through, followed by another push back to near normal behind the early week front next week. Concern about potential frost has waned for the time being…and we think seasonal temps are better positioned to dominate.

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