A few tweaks to the forecast this morning and they are allowing for a few more dry areas to try and develop over the next week. Unfortunately, we don’t think it will be enough to really give a good planting window statewide. Here is what we see this morning.
We are dry all day today. We expect a partly to mostly sunny day with temps near to slightly above normal. High pressure this morning is in northern West Virginia, meaning south winds continue to dominate today on the backside of that high, which will help temperatures climb. Tomorrow, we have some moisture returning to Ohio. We see scattered showers over about 65% of the state. These showers will focus on the northern half to three quarters of the state, with the southern quarter of Ohio seeing nothing really tomorrow. Rain totals tomorrow will be a few hundredths to .4”. Then from tomorrow night through Wednesday, we shift the action south into southern Ohio, with similar rain totals, but coverage down to about 40%. Wednesday night thunderstorms move into the SW Ohio, and then drift across the rest of the state. Those can have some heavier moisture, with rain totals at .25″-1″ and coverage near 75%. Notice that we see some significant holes showing up in that rain coverage tomorrow through Thursday. That may lead to some locations getting some better drying than others. WE are looking at a fully dry set of days for Friday and Saturday…meaning some of those drier holes can be looking at 3 or 4 days of dry weather in a row. This will be a minority in Ohio, but it is possible.
Overnight Saturday night, we see some clouds and can’t rule out a few widely scattered showers. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .1” with 40% coverage. This really is not a big deal, but we can’t quite wave the “all clear” flag yet. We will be watching to see if this moisture actually goes away. Sunday should be sunny and dry in Ohio again. So, putting it all together, the map at right is a look at combined rain potential for the week, with the period ending Sunday night.
However, whether we are able to see that Saturday night moisture fade or not, we finish the 10 day window on a wet note. Rain arrives again for Monday the 29th, bringing .5”-2” over 75% of the state. Scattered showers linger next Tuesday, the 30th and can trigger a few hundredths to .25” with 30% coverage. Then we have rain from I-70 north net Wednesday, May 1st, with potential for .2”-.7” over 60% of the northern half of Ohio. This pattern will bring drying to a screeching halt and will set field work progress potential back once again if it comes to fruition.
In the extended period, additional rains are likely for the May 2-4 time frame, with combined totals at half to 1.5”. Coverage will be around 80% of the state. Then after a couple of days of dry weather, another front is likely around the 6th and 7th that brings up to half an inch over 70% of Ohio. Behind that we may be able to put together a drier forecast window into mid-May.