A wet week is upon us. Rain arrives today by midday or afternoon, and we have rain chances every day through Friday. We may end up with a little bit less in the way of thunderstorms, and therefore slightly lower rain totals for the week, but we still have moisture every day, which means we are not seeing any significant dry down at all this week. A bit of a silver lining this morning is the fact that we do see holes in the coverage across the state on a daily basis over the next week or so, but everyone still can pick up some moisture. There is some optimism in the extended forecast this morning, but not much before then.
Today rains overspread the state but concentrate mostly on the northern half. We expect rain totals of .25”-.75″. While we do not expect significant rains in the southern third of Ohio today, we won’t rule out a few showers here and there, with a few hundredths to a tenth or two. Today’s rains will end up with about 70% coverage over the entire state.
Tomorrow, showers concentrate more on central Ohio, but once again, we are not going to get too cute and limit the spread of moisture. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to half an inch with 50% coverage.
Wednesday and Thursday show additional showers, but less of a thunderstorm threat right now. Wednesday’s action will be a few hundredths to .4” with 50% coverage, and then Thursday .1”-.7” with 80% coverage. Showers linger into Friday as well, but will generally be no more than .25” with coverage at 40%. The map at right shows rain potential through Friday night.
We finally get to some drier weather as we move into this weekend. Saturday will feature a slow clearing, and then sunshine dominates on Sunday. Temps will continue to be cool, and we see a bit of a threat of frost over north central and northeast Indiana those mornings. On Monday, moisture looks to try pass by to the north, over Michigan, Lake Erie and southern Ontario, but right now it seems to want to stay out of our area. We will need to watch that closely, but with the current set up, that would mean we pick up 3 days of dry weather back to back from the weekend into early next week.
Rain and thunderstorms do return for next Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday. The biggest thunderstorms die out to our west over IL and perhaps a few get into western Indiana, but we still have to allow for .25”-.75”of general rain potential over about 60% of the state for the period. That coverage will be skewed more to the northern half of the state. We will dry down for the balance of Wednesday afternoon.
The extended period features a dry start. We see nothing through the 12th, meaning we string together 5 days back to back of dry weather with good evaporation and near to above normal temps. Rains arrive the 13th near the end of the extended 11-16 day window, bringing totals of .25”-.75” to the region once again and coverage at 80%.