Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast, May 28, 2019

Rains park over the state today and a large part of Ohio will see some moisture at some point. Rains this morning through midday will be mostly from I-70 north and will be the heaviest. This afternoon and evening those showers sag farther south, but will be lighter. All told today, we see rain totals from .25″-1″ over about 80% of the state. Only far southern parts of Ohio miss rain today. Showers are back tomorrow with additional threat of thunderstorms. Rain totals stay in that .25″-1″ range with coverage at 80%. Then Thursday we have rain and heavy thunderstorms slowly tracking through, meaning we can see half to 2 inch rain totals over 80% of the state. So, combined over the next three days, we can easily see another .75″-3″ easily and in some areas more than that. After we did get some field work done this past weekend in a few spots, this looks like it will not allow for a lot of opportunity for field work in this upcoming period.

 

Friday should be dry over most of the state. The only exception looks to be down in our far southern tier counties, near the Ohio river in south central Ohio. There we can see a few showers Friday late afternoon and evening that may yield up to .25”. However, the rest of the state is partly sunny and rain free. We continue that pattern into Saturday, with a mostly dry day. Showers hold off until late afternoon and evening Saturday, meaning we get almost 2 days of back to back dry weather for a majority of the state…but it won’t be enough. Showers from Saturday night through Sunday bring rain totals of .2”- .7” to 75% of the state.

 

Two more dry days back to back come in for Monday and Tuesday of next week. We see sunshine warm temps and good evaporation. At this point we think  that we can also give you a mostly dry Wednesday, but clouds will be building . That means we have 3 days total that may provide a good window for dry-down. Wednesday evening and overnight rains move in and hold through next Thursday. Rains there can total .25”-1.5” over 80% of the state. The map at right shows 10 day rainfall potential for Ohio. 

 

For the extended period, Friday features a mix of clouds and sun, while next Saturday, the 8th can have a few pop up showers. We are dry for Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th with partly sunny skies, but showers push up from the south for Tuesday the 11th, bringing rain totals of .1”-.6” to about 70% of the state. The extended period ends with drier air trying to push back in for Wednesday the 12th, but some lingering showers may hold in the south and eastern parts of the state.

 

So, once again, this forecast does not come down to quantity of rain as much as it does frequency. We are seeing lower rain totals in many areas for each system going forward…the problem is we see systems with only 1-3 days of dryness tops in-between…which does not allow for net drying at all over the long haul. That 3 day window we talked about looks like an absolute gift right now. We continue to think that planting progress will be difficult to see going forward and will depend more on “luck” (being lucky enough to miss out on at least one of these waves), than anything else.

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