Overall, our “broken record” forecast continues to play well. Dry, sunny weather repeats every day from today through Monday. On Sunday, we may have to keep an eye out for a few more clouds, but at this time we are not concerned about any precipitation threat. Clouds will be on the increase Monday, especially in the afternoon, ahead of the fronts nighttime arrival. Temps today through Monday will continue to work higher by a small amount each day, ending up at above normal levels late weekend into early next week. Humidity levels will also be climbing, particularly this weekend.
Our next front arrives in northwest Ohio after midnight next Monday night, as alluded to above. This will trigger showers, but due to timing, we do not expect a huge thunderstorm threat. The rains track across the state overnight Monday night through Tuesday and into very early Wednesday, bringing rain totals of .1”-.75” to 85% of the state. The front is clearing out of the state faster, though, and this morning we are taking rain out of a large part of the state for next Wednesday. Instead, we think the region can turn out partly sunny. The exception will be far eastern and southern areas of Ohio, where the front slows just a bit. Still, in those regions, we get sunshine back by mid to late afternoon
We are also removing well-organized rain from the Thursday forecast next week. Warm air and increasing humidity levels will lead to some instability, and because of that we can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm, but most of the state will be rain free. Same story for Friday…no well-organized moisture, but heat based pop up thunderstorms are likely, at least in the afternoon and evening as a product of our humid and unstable atmosphere. The map at right shows rain totals through next Friday. Note that most of the state only sees .25”-.5” for the entire period, and only a the“over-achievers” get closer to .75″ or an isolated 1” total. The heaviest rain totals near Lake Erie and near the Michigan line are over done, I think. There will be some stronger thunderstorms out of the front for next Monday night and Tuesday, but we doubt they trigger those levels of rain.
For the extended period, we start with a threat of lingering thunderstorms Saturday morning (3rd), but action should be winding down by midday. For the afternoon we turn out partly to mostly sunny, but still warm. Sunday will be sunny and dry. Monday the 5th brings our other organized frontal boundary to the area. Rains are possible all day with rain totals of .1”-.6”, but coverage only at 60%. A lot of the state can miss that rain event. Then the rest of the week, we see mostly partly sunny skies, but humidity and warm air will make it so once again we just can’t completely rule out scattered showers for the Tuesday through Friday period. Coverage will be closer to 30%, and the better chances come Tuesday-Wednesday (6th and 7th) over later that week.