A couple of tweaks to the forecast this morning, but generally we are looking at the same set up. Tweak number one is to extend our near-term dry stretch by one day, and tweak number two will be to reduce rain totals and coverage out of our next rain event. If we are being honest, there are really three tweaks, but the last is not set in stone yet, and it deals with rain and coverage out of the system that comes as we move from the 10 day period into the extended forecast window.
We are now dry over the entire state with sunshine and blue sky today through next Tuesday. That is one day longer than our previous forecast, as we are delaying the arrival of our next cold front. Temps will slowly build through the period, and we will be above normal this weekend into early next week. Humidity values should stay low for the rest of this week, but likely will climb some later in the weekend and next week ahead of the midweek front.
Our next rain chance comes Wednesday as a minor cold front sweeps in from the north and west. However, we are lowering our rain totals to only a few hundredths to a tenth or two with coverage down to 50% or at most 60% of the state. This front really is lacking a good moisture source, and because of that will likely be a “swing and a miss!” Dry weather returns for Thursday and Friday of next week, and temps are near normal.
A stronger storm complex is moving close as we finish out the 10 day period next Saturday. However, that system is showing signs of wanting to track farther north, keeping the biggest and best rain totals into WI, MI and southern Ontario. We are not going to take moisture out completely for our area just yet, but this may drag only minor showers over the northern half to third of the state for Saturday rather than a big event. We are not going to make major changes at this time but will be watching data going forward. The map at right shows 10 day rain potential over the state.
The extended period looks similar to our last forecast, but if the event next Saturday passes by further north, it likely brings the second wave that direction too, so we may end up pulling back on moisture to start the 11-16 day forecast window. The rest is basically unchanged…mixed clouds and sun with chances of pop up showers Monday through Wednesday, the 14th, and then a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with .25”-1.25” potential for the 15th into the 16th.