A big change in our weather pattern kicks off today. Rain spreads over the state and will lead to rain totals of .25″-.75″ over 100% of Ohio. Cold air waits to blast in until this evening, and closer to midnight any remaining moisture in central and northern Ohio has the potential to end as sloppy wet snowflakes. That being said, we think the threat of snow with this system overnight is minimal, as most of the moisture is gone before cold air arrives. The areas that have the biggest potential for a few flakes will be in east central and NE Ohio.
Conditions turn windy and much colder for Tuesday. Temps will be significantly lower than today, and we go to well below normal levels. Winds make the change more dramatic today, but as winds subside tomorrow and Thursday, we still see even colder air coming for those days. The threat of below zero temps looks like it is off the table now, but still, lower single digit lows are likely, especially overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We see no new precipitation those days except for some lake effect snow potential on Wednesday in far NE Ohio, and perhaps a bit sagging back into north central Ohio near the lake shore. The rest of the state is dry.
On Friday, we start to see some temperature moderation, and with that a few more clouds. However, we are going to keep the forecast dry at this time, and likely see similar conditions for Saturday, although there is a slightly better chance of rain over the eastern third of the state Saturday midday and afternoon. If rain does fall, we are talking a few tenths or less. Clouds mix with sun on Sunday, but there is not any serious threat of organization on any moisture.
Our next frontal passage comes overnight Sunday night through Monday of next week. This has some warm air leading the front, but most of the precipitation looks like it wants to come in the cold sector. Right now, we will allow for both rain and snow potential, but would skew central and northern Ohio more toward snow, with far southern Ohio rain. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be from .1″-.5″ with coverage at 80%. Dry and colder for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The map at right shows our estimate for liquid equivalent moisture totals for the next 10 days combined. Some models are wetter than this, and some are drier. The biggest chunk of this happens in the next 24 hours.