Bearish soybeans, neutral corn and wheat

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

The U.S. corn yield was 181.8 bushels per acre with the U.S. soybean yield at 53.3 bushels per acre. Corn production was 15.278 billion bushels, last month it was 15.0 billion bushels. Soybean production was 4.425 billion bushels, last month it was 4.135 billion bushels.

Expect in coming months that big crops will get bigger, past history shows this to be a great barometer.

Farmer yield estimates are used heavily to determine corn and soybean yields for this report along with last month’s report. Actual field visits and yield reports will be used with the September and October reports.

The general mood from analysts going into this report was not bullish and expected crops to get bigger (supply) with usage decreasing (demand). Trader estimates had the U.S. corn yield at 180.5 bushels, last month USDA was 178.5, while the trader estimate for the U.S. soybean yield was 51.2 bushels, last month USDA was 49.8.

Shortly after the USDA report was released, corn was unchanged, soybeans down 5 cents, and wheat unchanged. Moments before the noon report, corn was down 2 cents, soybeans up 1 cent, with wheat down 4 cents.

Old corn exports were up 20 million bushels, corn for ethanol was unchanged at 4.85 billion bushels. Old crop soybean exports were unchanged. Soybean crush was up 5 million bushels.

Old crop ending stocks were expected to increase for both corn and soybeans. Corn ending stocks were 2.228 billion bushels, last month was 2.248 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks were 615 million bushels, last month was 620 million bushels.

New crop corn ending stocks were 2.756 billion bushels, last month was 2.648 billion bushels. Soybean new crop ending stocks were 610 million bushels, last month was 425 million bushels. Wheat new crop ending stocks were 925 million bushels, last month was 942 million bushels.

Trader estimates had old corn ending stocks at 2.271 billion bushels with old soybean ending stocks at 617 million bushels. Looking at trader estimates for new crop, corn was 2.80 billion bushels, soybeans 524 million bushels, and wheat 946 million bushels.

Since late Monday afternoon, numerous reports talk of the derecho, or severe windstorm which raced across Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and into Illinois on Monday. See Dale Minyo’s Wednesday morning report at www.ocj.com for further details. The Iowa Ag Secretary, Mike Naig, talks of damage to crops, grain bins, and buildings. The final effect could be months in the making.

China has been an active buyer of new crop U.S. soybeans each day this week as they are booking soybeans for October and November.

It is not a surprise China has officially announced they are abandoning their plan to have a 10% ethanol blend in their gasoline. Their plan was suspended this year in January. Trade wars, logistics, and domestic corn price inflation all played a role in dooming their plan. The U.S. previously had been exporting ethanol to China.

Weather and export activity will play a huge role in grain prices in coming weeks. No surprise here. Early harvest reports will be seen the first two weeks of September.

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One comment

  1. Wheat is consumed by every single person in the world and it’s a basic necessary food which is used worldwide. China has the most production in numbers of (134,340,630 tonnes) and China is also the country that consumes wheat more than any other country. It is full of Fiber, Magnesium, Selenium and other more benefitial vitamins and minerals which helps us to do daily work.

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