Harvest weather outlook

By Jim Noel, NOAA

The cooler than normal blob of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator tends to push the first autumn freeze later than normal in our region. Therefore, there is no indication of an early freeze in September this year. It appears the first freeze for Ohio will not come until October either on schedule or a bit later than normal.

September looks to have the first half start cooler than normal followed by a return to normal temperatures for second half of the month.  Precipitation will be normal or slightly above normal for September. Normal rainfall is currently 1 inch to 1.5 inches per two weeks dropping to about an inch per two weeks for the second half of September. Even though we expect rainfall at or slightly above normal in September, there is a great deal of uncertainty due to the tropics and where those systems will travel. So you will want to pay attention to later outlooks at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov 

Rainfall for the first half of September will average 0.50 to 2 inches. The heaviest rains will likely surround the state of Ohio in most directions.

October into part of November looks to resume the above normal temperatures which should create an extended autumn this year. Rainfall remains highly uncertain but it appears near normal is the most likely outcome for October and November as we have some climate models showing above normal and some below normal rainfall.

The early outlook for winter calls for above normal temperatures first half and below normal temperatures second half. Precipitation is likely to become above normal with potential influences from the tropical Pacific Ocean.

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