Scattered showers try and work across Ohio today, but will focus more on the southern half of the state. From I-70 southward we can see a wide range of rain potential, from a few tenths to well over an inch. The main factor in large vs. minor rain totals will be thunderstorm development. We think the best chances will be SW and central OH, but don’t want to get too cute. The biggest thunderstorms have already rained themselves out farther to the SW. Northern parts of the state, particularly NW OH and north central, will not only be rain free, but should see dominant sunshine through the day. Sun waits until later afternoon to poke through in the south. The map below shows rain potential today.
We are moving into a much drier pattern to finish the week and weekend, and are actually trending our forecast drier for next week. We turn out mostly sunny, warm and more humid tomorrow through Monday. We are taking out rain threats for Labor day.
Next Tuesday we look for more clouds and we will keep a threat of moisture in for Tuesday night and Wednesday, but we are seeing far less moisture available on some models. Others are staying the course. The front that was heading to the eastern corn belt for midweek next week now is showing signs of hanging up farther west on the European model, but others keep it around. AT the moment, we are taking our rain threats and scaling them back, but not getting rid of them. With such wide discrepancies in model date, we will see some adjustments at some point. We will keep rain potential for next Wednesday and Thursday at .1″-.6″ with the risk being heavier rains now over missing it completely. Temps also are not largely dependent on this front, it strength and how dramatically it wants to sweep through. There already have been some “frost-mongers” on social media warning of major cold next week. That wont happen. But, how far below normal really hinges on how we see this front evolve in the days ahead, and whether that front slows and dissipates farther west. Stay tuned.