Much colder air begins to move into the state today. A cold front comes across the area from NW to SE. There will be some precipitation as the front comes through, but that is not the main story of the passage. Scattered showers will develop midday through evening, ending overnight. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .3″ with 75% coverage. But, the change in airmass is the real story. Temps fall this afternoon and we go below normal overnight tonight, staying chilly with below normal temps tomorrow and Saturday. Patchy frost is possible tonight in some areas but not super likely due to clouds holding on longer. However, frost is likely tomorrow and we could be looking at a fairly hard frost (but not a freeze). The map below shows Saturday morning lows again.
Sunday temps start to moderate some, but we continue with partly sunny skies, like we expect tomorrow and Saturday. Next week features a lot more question marks this morning. Models are in definite disagreement on moisture, both intensity and tracks. The European is very wet and stormy, with multiple waves of moisture Monday through Wednesday and rain totals for the 3 day stretch at 1-3″. The American models are not as wet and only have small chances of showers with 60% coverage Monday and 75% coverage of better showers on Wednesday, for a 3 day combined rain total of .2″-.8″ Temps are warm, staying normal to slightly above normal for either solution. Right now, we are staying toward the drier side, as our forecast has been drier up to this point, and we see no need to change it based on one model run with no consensus of data. However, we will be watching in the days ahead. Also, we still think there will be scattered showers the first part of next week, so some delays in harvest are likely Monday through Wednesday.
The second half of next week is dry with partly sunny skies Thursday and Friday. We stay near normal. However, we expect a strong cold front next weekend that will bring a chance of rain again, but also another impressive drop in temperatures as cold Canadian air invades for Sunday the 25th. That will kick off the extended 11-16 day period on a chilly note.