No major changes this morning. The only tweaks we are making to the forecast is to push the moisture back about 12 hours or so next week and take totals down just slightly. However, between now and then, everything remains the same.
We are sunny, warm and dry today through next Monday. Temps will be normal to above normal for the entire period and will be well above normal late this week and weekend. We should see decent south breezes too, allowing for excellent drying conditions. Humidity values will be low, evaporation high. Harvest should have no hiccups the rest of the week, weekend and next Monday.
Late next Monday afternoon clouds will start to develop. However, we are not putting any rain in the forecast until near sunrise on Tuesday morning. For the balance of next Tuesday, we do see scattered shower and a small threat of thunderstorms as a frontal complex moves through. The action will be done by 3:00-4:00 AM Wednesday morning. Totals combined for the event will be from .25″-1″ with coverage at 75%. Both the range and the coverage are down from yesterdays look, as available moisture has slackened, likely due to the extremely dry atmosphere we will be dealing with by this time next week. The map below shows an update to rain potential.
We return to sunny, dry weather for next Wednesday. However, models are trying to develop a second system for next Thursday. Tracks are all over the place. Right now, we prefer and will stick with a drier forecast for the second half of next week, taking the moisture farther north. However, we are actively watching the data streams, and if we get some confirming information that the front is more of a west-east mover and therefore puts us in the crosshairs, we will have to update the forecast tomorrow morning. For now, just concentrate on the time at hand…this is a fantastic harvest window in front of us right now.