November WASDE Bullish

By Doug Tenny, Leist Mercantile

USDA today projected the US corn production at14.507 billion bushels and the US corn yield at 175.8 bushels per acre. Last month US corn production was 14.722 billion bushels and the yield was 178.4 bushels per acres. This month the US soybean production was 4.170 billion bushels and the US soybean yield was 50.7 bushels. Last month the US soybean production was 4.268 billion bushels and the US soybean yield was 51.9 bushels per acre.

Corn ending stocks were 1.702 billion bushels, down 331 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks were 190 million bushels, a decline of 100 million bushels. Corn exports up 325 million bushels with soybean exports unchanged. China corn imports up 6 million tons to 13 million tons.

Shortly after the report was released, corn was up 11 cents, soybeans up 27 cents, and wheat up 10 cents. Just before the report release, corn was up 4 cents, soybeans up 13 cents, and wheat up 8 cents. 

Several private estimates for yields and production this past week have indicated corn and soybean production and yields would be declining from the October report. Positive fundamentals were expected with today’s report in spite of current prices with $11 soybeans, $4 corn, and $6 wheat. Key numbers to watch today included the US corn and soybean yields as well as the US corn and soybean ending stocks. In addition, China corn imports should be increasing as a result of additional import licenses issued in recent weeks.

The average trade estimate for US corn production was 14.659 billion bushels, US corn yield at 177.7 bushels per acres, US soybean production 4.251 billion bushels, and the US soybean yield at 51.6 bushels per acre.

Many had also expected US corn and US soybean export numbers to increase. With ideas of lower production along with higher exports, ending stocks would be declining.

Today’s report will be the last production and yield report for 2020. The final 2020 production and yield report for corn and soybeans will be January 2021.

Ohio’s corn and soybean harvest gained significant momentum the past 10 days. Phenomenal harvest weather for Ohio this past week with daily highs in the 70’s, produced multiple days of new record daily highs across much of the state. The weather for the first ten days of November is reminiscent of early October weather conditions with ten consecutive days of good harvest weather strongly desired, but seldom occurring.

Brazil has planted 54% of their soybeans with 52% the average planting pace. Rains for central Brazil next week are in the current forecast.

Numerous areas around the world are experiencing dry conditions, including the US southern plains, the Black Sea region in Russia, along with Argentina. Soybean planting progress in central Brazil continues to be behind normal with replanting needed due to the dry conditions. This pushes their harvest to a later date and behind normal. It also suggests that China could be buying additional US soybeans for January and February delivery because Brazil is out of exportable supplies.   

China imported 8.7 million tons of soybeans in October. The China crush for soybeans is higher along with increasing hog numbers.

The NASS weekly crop progress report from Monday afternoon had the US corn harvest at 91% and the US soybean harvest at 92%. Ohio corn harvest was 64% with the Ohio soybean harvest at 87%. Ohio’s corn harvest continues the weeks old pattern of falling below the 5-year average harvest pace. This week it is 12 points behind the 5-year average.

The two week forecast calls for below normal rains in Russia, southern Brazil, and eastern Argentina.

US soybean weekly export shipments continue to be strong with the latest week at nearly 91.7 million bushels exported. The previous week was 87.8 million bushels. US export lift capacity for grains continues to be maxed out into the year end. Expect South America weather to be a dominant feature into mid-December. Russia’s wheat entered dormancy in poor condition and dry weather will not be improving wheat conditions.

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