Our forecast period starts with better weather, but we have the potential for our first big winter event of the season showing up early next week. Someone somewhere is going to get pounded by some winter weather, and signs this morning are pointing toward that “somewhere” being in Ohio.
Dry weather today and tomorrow. Temps will not be much better than yesterday, but with more sun across the state, it will feel a little bit better. Evaporation looks pretty good in the short haul. On Sunday we start with sunshine, but look for clouds to develop later in the afternoon and evening.
Our next weather system lifts up from the southwest overnight Sunday night and Monday. Cold air comes in very fast with this system for most of the state. Precipitation starts as rain in south and southeastern parts of OH overnight Sunday night, but snow everywhere else. By sunrise Monday we see mostly snow in all areas save for far southeast OH, and then through the day Monday we get snow as our main precipitation type statewide. Low pressure takes a track right over WV into central PA, and that takes good snow accumulations over us. Right we are projecting up to a half inch of rain in southern and south east OH before changing over to rain and over all of Ohio, snow accumulations are likely to range from 1″ to at least 8″ for the Sunday-Monday period. Then, as the system continues to move away on Tuesday we see wrap around moisture, strong NW flow and cold air combine to produce some additional snow showers, and good lake effect snow potential near Lake Erie and in NE Ohio. The map below shows an estimate of snow potential for the Sunday midnight through Tuesday evening period. This is just a working idea here this morning…and we will be zeroing in on an exact snow forecast for our Sunday evening update…so tune back in then to see if we have changes. We can tell you this morning that models are all over the place, and will likely continue to be confused by this first good system of the season. Track of the low will be the most important part of snow accumulation potential.
WE stay cold for next Wednesday, but clouds break up for more sun. Temps moderate for next Thursday and Friday. High pressure gives plenty of sun for Thursday but clouds will increase next Friday. Scattered rain showers return overnight Friday night, and then next weekend we will deal with rain and potentially light wet snow showers off and on through Saturday and Sunday. Liquid precipitation potential runs .5″-1.5″, but we wont rule out snow with accumulations being part of that at this time. We will watch it closely through the next week.