Dry weather in for the next 3 days, but we are increasingly concerned about getting hammered with a winter event late this weekend and early next week. High pressure centers just a bit off to our north and west today in the MI Thumb. That brings the coldest part of this airmass in today for our region, especially NW OH along with NE IN an lower MI. But, we should see at least partly sunny skies, with better sun potential in some areas. Tomorrow is mostly sunny and perhaps not quite as cold, and then Saturday temps moderate more ahead of our next front. However, After morning sun, clouds increase Saturday afternoon.
Our next frontal complex arrives after midnight Saturday night and will bring rain/wet snow to the state for Sunday. We think temps will be warm enough during daytime hours for mostly rain on Sunday over the southern half of the state. However, the jury is still out and we do have some concern about wet snow and perhaps sleet or ice over the northern third of the state. In these events, the line between all rain and heavy snow is often very thin. We will revisit this again in our forecast tomorrow. In any case, liquid equivalent potential continues to look strong, at .5″-1.5″ with coverage at 100% of OH. Snow accumulations can have a wide range as we seem them right now, especially given the fact that we see snow continuing Sunday night through Monday. In addition, snow is slow to depart eastern areas and will linger through Tuesday, with an additional accumulation, while western areas remain snow free. For right now we will abstain from putting snow totals out there in order to keep from “snowmongering” But we will put our snow forecast out tomorrow morning ahead of the weekend. The map below show an updated look at moisture potential for the entire event, in liquid equivalent (everything, assuming you melt the snow down for liquid content).
Next Wednesday should be precipitation free along with next Thursday. Temps chilly, but not overly cold. Clouds dominate. Then we end the week and the 10 day forecast window with another strong front next Friday the 5th into Saturday the 6th. This one has a significant warm surge ahead of it, such that we are looking for 100% rain. Rain totals can be .25″-1.25″ with coverage at 100%. However, another significant cold blast rushes in behind for the balance of that weekend, and temps will be below normal with strong winds.