The forecast is trending drier again, as we remove more moisture from our overall 10 day outlook this morning.
Today will be the warmest day of the rest of the week, thanks to good strong south flow over Ohio. We will turn out partly to mostly sunny state wide and see good snow melt continue. Sunshine continues to dominate tomorrow and Friday, but we see cooler air sagging back into the state along with northerly and westerly breezes. Temps will be cooler, but not cold. WE should be back closer to normal.
Our Saturday forecast is drier. We expect a few more clouds around, but the threat of moisture has waned for the day. We wont rule out a sprinkle or shower, coverage will be minor. However, we are keeping moisture chances around and even bumping them a bit Sunday, as a second surge of moisture comes out of the system passing by to our south. We look for scattered showers Sunday that can bring .1″-.4″ up to US 20 with 70% coverage. Farther north, we likely see just clouds.
Monday and Tuesday now look dry with a mix of clouds and sun, except for far southern parts of the state – in those areas we may see showers from the Sunday wave linger a bit longer, boosting rain totals there (see map totals below). Now, we wont rule out a few sprinkles or an isolated shower overnight Tuesday night, but really the threat of moisture at all the first half of next week has fallen off dramatically. Moisture is just not available. Wednesday through Friday we see partly to mostly sunny skies. Temps will be cooler, but again, not cold. As we move into the weekend (6th and 7th) we see clear skies and moderating temps. In fact, as we look back west, we see a majority of the country sunny and warm, with a strong surge of above normal air up through the plains and Pacific NW. This will keep a drier, warmer forecast pattern in play through at least the first half of the extended forecast window, through the 11th. The map below shows liquid precip totals through the entire 10 day period. We think the southern totals are a little over zealous at the moment.
Overall, this pattern is setting up to have good evaporation. In fact, we think its likely that evaporation matches snow melt in the days ahead, meaning we really do not see an excessive amount of the moisture contained in the snow cover to make it into the soil profile. This weekend rain potential will give some rain, but not too much. The pattern is below normal on precipitation into mid March. While we shift into mud season, it may not be overwhelmingly sloppy, at least for a long, drawn out period.