Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast May 14, 2021

We have A LOT of model disagreement on how next week plays out. Some models are wet, like we have been talking the past day or two, others are staying drier. All models are flip flopping back and forth, and can not seem to come to major consensus. We do feel comfortable with the near term forecast through the weekend and next Monday. The rest of the 10 day forecast window from Tuesday forward next week and weekend is muddled and unsettled to say the least.

For the near-term, we have no problems today. We turn out mostly sunny and temps will be near normal. We should see good evaporation and decent drying. Tomorrow looks good too with another round of bright sun and good drying.

Sunday features more clouds. WE may see a bit of sun here and there, but most likely scattered showers pop up over parts of Ohio. Rain totals are not dramatic…only a few hundredths to a tenth or two, and coverage may be limited to 60% of the state. But still, we likely do not see good drying through Sunday. Our next frontal system moves through the state Monday into early Tuesday. Rain totals can be .25″ to 1″ with coverage at 70% of Ohio. However, here is where we start to see some model discrepancies…with a couple of models favoring a mostly southern bias to moisture , while others are less discriminant. We do see moisture to start the week, but where the worst falls is up for some debate. We will revisit this Sunday night and Monday morning, to tune in for updates as this will really dictate what we can do for planting the rest of next week .

Tuesday forward through Saturday is also unsettled. We look for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday to likely be drier with limited new precipitation, but we still cant rule a shower or two out. Thursday and Friday look to have higher precipitation chances, but still there is no agreement on moisture totals and potential late week. Right now we will go with a wetter outlook and put chances for .1″-.5″ combined in our forecast, because that would be a worse case scenario. Then next weekend, we see cloudy to partly sunny skies with a chance of scattered showers with 50% coverage.

Overall, this forecast outlook is a little better in terms of combined 10 day moisture potential. The map below is our latest look. However, it is far from being completely dry, and still may not have enough drying opportunities between rain chances. We are most bothered by starkly contrasting data for forecast compilation, and are looking for hopefully some clarity over the weekend. For now, plan on being wet a good chunk of next week, and if we turn out drier, call it a bonus.

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