We have the potential of a pretty soggy week in front of us. We are going to be laying out a “worst case scenario” in the forecast this morning, as we are leaving our forecast in the same general range as we were talking last week. However, there is one model that suggests we could see less precipitation, so feel free to hope for me to be wrong and that model to be right.
Showers are moving across the state today, spreading from SW to NE. We will end up with .25″-.75″ out of the rains today and this evening. We take a break for the first part of the day tomorrow, then rain returns tomorrow night and lingers through most of Wednesday, bringing another .25″-.75″ to the state. Combined, from now through early Thursday morning we will see .5″ to 1.5″ of rain and coverage at 100%. See map below.
Thursday will be mostly dry and we should see a bit of sunshine. However another trough comes through overnight Thursday night through Friday midday, and can trigger .1″-.4″ over 60% of Ohio. This moisture will mostly be central and north. Clouds break for sun later Friday afternoon.
Saturday can start with sun, but clouds come back quickly. A cold front comes through Saturday night and Sunday and can have rain potential of .25″-1.5″ over 90% of Ohio. That will conclude a rather damp week over the region. In addition to the rain potential, we are also going to take temps back a few notches this week. Today will stay mild, but tomorrow forward through the weekend will be significantly cooler than what we saw as we finished the weekend. We are not concerned about super cold overnight temps at all, mostly because clouds will dominate this week. But, with all the clouds and the rain, temps will be normal to below all week long.
Generally this week, we have too much moisture on the way, and temps will be pretty cool. We still think it will be difficult to see significant planting progress this week, but we are keeping fingers crossed for actual rains to be at or below the lower end of our forecast ranges.
Finally we move back toward a drier pattern for next week. Sunshine dominates Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with moderating temps. WE should see evaporation near maximum at .25″ per day, and with temps above normal, drying will work at a good clip. However, another system sits off to the west and may make a run at us later next Thursday into Friday.