Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast May 4, 2021

No major changes to our forecast this morning…we remain wet in the near-term, and 10 day precipitation continues to project to levels that are more than we need for planting progress.

Rain overnight is attempting to exit northern Ohio this morning, but will likely not get out of here before dropping another tenth or two. We have another, more significant wave of showers and thunderstorms that comes up from the southwest this afternoon/evening, and then continues overnight through tomorrow. Rain totals there will be .25″-1″ over 90% of the state, and the heaviest totals will be in central and southern OH, where we have slightly better chances for thunderstorms. Minor totals, even some under .25″ will be seen in northern Ohio. Rain ends in most areas by midday tomorrow, but will hang on a bit longer in the eastern tier counties. Clouds will break late in the day and tomorrow night.

Thursday will start with some sun, but showers return quickly for Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain totals are not impressive, but if we are getting even minor moisture, clearly we are not drying, which we will need to be doing. Right now we are penciling in a few hundredths to .4″ with coverage at 60%. We turn out partly sunny for Friday, but cool.

This weekend we have a cold front poised to move through. Rains develop Saturday morning to midday, and then continue into early Sunday. Rain totals likely hit a half to 1.5″ range over 100% of Ohio. Rain can linger longer Sunday in parts of Ohio, especially the eastern third, bolstering the upper end of the precipitation range.

Next week turns out partly sunny for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, with temps near normal. However, we finish the 10 day window next Thursday with another front, and it could give us .25″-1″ at least and 80% coverage.

This forecast has a few pauses in precipitation and 1 truly dry window…but with the precipitation we are expecting for the next 10 days combined (see map below), this will likely not be enough to see anything more than spotty attempts at field work between now and midmonth. We need to miss one or more of these systems to have a better chance at drying out.

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